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Will Oil become Valueless

Social media Idiots 👇 went crazy the moment the news about Alberta oil going into negative hit the headlines. While this is one of the rare events when a theoretical concept has come true.

#OilPrice
#Petrol
#OilCrash
All crude oils are not same — there is West Texas Intermediate (WTI), Brent, Dubai CrudCrude at the end of the day is a physical commodity that is traded on exchanges or Over-The-Counter (OTC) but delivered at a physical location (Cushing in Oaklahoma is where WTI is delivered.
While Brent is delivered globally at various ports). Let us discuss the top 2 types of crude and what the recent market moves tell us about it. WTI — West Texas Intermediate is the crude that went negative on 20th April. In fact, it went below -$30 at a point today.
As it is clear only WTI was punished today and the real reason is the timing. While the world is in lock-down thanks to COVID-19 and OPEC/Russia/Shale Producers in the US are pumping crude at will, the real reason isn’t supply-demand as much as it is the timing of this movement.
As mentioned earlier, crude is traded on exchanges but eventually, someone has to take physical delivery of the crude. The May month contract is expiring on 21st April i.e., anyone holding the paper contract as of Tuesday will have to take the delivery of the barrels in May
Now comes the role of ETFs — Exchange Traded Funds that offer an option for investors to invest in crude and benefit from its movement can’t take the delivery of crude oil and they started to dump their positions for May month in the market today.
This was compounded by the fact that all the storage tanks in Cushing, are filled and the only way to take delivery in May is to bring trucks. This led to a situation where no one wanted to take the physical deliveries however there were 100s of thousands of contracts being sold.
Hence, people started to quote negative rates to cover the cost of trucks and the price went below $0. The news spread like a wildfire and soon all the contracts started to be sold at a negative value and thus we reached a stage that was only possible in theory and in textbooks.
But it is important to note that WTI crude price went below $0 only for the May series and not for other months. Of course Brent and other types of oil traded above $20. Important to note the June month contract actually ended up being positive for the day at $21.22 to a barrel.
With May series more or less done and dusted and a positive June series, things aren’t as bad as they may seem. Yes, the supply is threatening to flood the markets and storage capacity continues to remain full in the near future.
Add to this the major oil buyers (China, India, and Japan) are expected to remain in some form of lock-down for the next few weeks and suddenly the picture for oil doesn’t look good. However, it will be too early to call crude oil a valueless commodity.
What happened today is historic and will be long remembered for many many decades to come. However, the crude isn’t valueless yet — It is still $21 dollar for the June month and you will still be required to pay for it at your nearest gas station!

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