I fully disagree with this nonsensical idea of accosting herd immunity by lifting all lockdowns. These are people who care about their own elite lifestyle getting effected and not the people who value life.
@CholericCleric it will take a bit.
First, I will start with the assumption that “if only we allowed virus to be spread, we will be back in business by November”.
In short, this is like expecting child wearing superman costume to jump to moon.
First, I will start with the assumption that “if only we allowed virus to be spread, we will be back in business by November”.
In short, this is like expecting child wearing superman costume to jump to moon.
November makes it one year.
There is no way any vaccine can complete all relevant trials, get all approvals and be manufactured by November. The best case scenario is jan 2021, assuming all things go according to plan (which seldom happens).
So, there is no vaccine before Nov.
There is no way any vaccine can complete all relevant trials, get all approvals and be manufactured by November. The best case scenario is jan 2021, assuming all things go according to plan (which seldom happens).
So, there is no vaccine before Nov.
To develop herd immunity by November, that means that we actually want people to get most people infected by virus before October mid—it takes 2-3 weeks to recover.
First challenge: how many of the 138 crore should get infected to achieve herd immunity?
First challenge: how many of the 138 crore should get infected to achieve herd immunity?
That means that no one who was infected in January should be able to get reinfected in October.
We do not know anything about this. We are just assuming that immunity should possibly last longer because some other corona virus has a vaccine.
We do not know anything about this. We are just assuming that immunity should possibly last longer because some other corona virus has a vaccine.
Secondly, herd immunity is not individual immunity. It’s not that after herd immunity kicks in, no one else will get infected. It’s that chance for wider infection comes down.
This is a matter of probability, not immunity. In a country the size of India, it will still mean 1000s
This is a matter of probability, not immunity. In a country the size of India, it will still mean 1000s
Now, let’s assume that immunity gained after recovery is lifelong.
Let’s also assume that 60% is sufficient for herd immunity to kick in.
What kind of case fatality rate are we expecting? 5% means 3% or 4 crore people dead.
Let’s also assume that 60% is sufficient for herd immunity to kick in.
What kind of case fatality rate are we expecting? 5% means 3% or 4 crore people dead.
4 crore deaths would imply about 35 crore people directly affected and probably 50 crore people’s lives impacted by deaths due to virus. That’s a huge number no politician can afford to lose.
Even a conservative estimate leaves 2 crore people impacted. That’s too much cost.
Even a conservative estimate leaves 2 crore people impacted. That’s too much cost.
Now, the key argument that somehow India manages to pull a miraculous feet and there is 100% immunity by November. Will that mean economic recovery? Even though we will be 8 months past the March peak, markets in November will still be at their lows.
The virus had impacted supply chains, consumer behaviour, consumer demands, and free disposable money.
Because of the immediate effect of the pandemic, the consumption will be less in the near future.
Trade is not going to recover fast as well.
Because of the immediate effect of the pandemic, the consumption will be less in the near future.
Trade is not going to recover fast as well.
This calendar year is already expected to lose out 2%. There is going to be an actual shrink in global GDP.
We are in recession territory.(you know, recession is a lot like monsoon—you realise you have one after it has already started and wrecked early havoc.)
We are in recession territory.(you know, recession is a lot like monsoon—you realise you have one after it has already started and wrecked early havoc.)
What has the lockdown policy really done in India:
Flattened the curve so effectively that we have many districts with zero cases reported in the last 14 days. We don’t have doctors crying like in Italy and that Chinese video.
By simply saving human capital,recovery is guaranteed
Flattened the curve so effectively that we have many districts with zero cases reported in the last 14 days. We don’t have doctors crying like in Italy and that Chinese video.
By simply saving human capital,recovery is guaranteed
The objective of lockdown is not a wait for vaccine as was suggested earlier.
The objective is to delay enough so that some medicine can be found that can treat the virus.
The HCQ+Azithromycin+zinc is the only one among many docs think will work. As of now,there is still no cure.
The objective is to delay enough so that some medicine can be found that can treat the virus.
The HCQ+Azithromycin+zinc is the only one among many docs think will work. As of now,there is still no cure.
Indian concept of testing is really a smart one.
Something multiplicative Chernoff bound. Basically, to get an estimate of how bad the infection is, you don’t have to test all. Targeted testing will ensure that relative error is not that big. Low chance for infection rate >10%.
Something multiplicative Chernoff bound. Basically, to get an estimate of how bad the infection is, you don’t have to test all. Targeted testing will ensure that relative error is not that big. Low chance for infection rate >10%.
Realistically though, with lot of asymptomatic patients self-healing, the current 3% must be the upper bound.
And that brings me to the final point on why this article is packed with high quality verbose bullshitia.
And that brings me to the final point on why this article is packed with high quality verbose bullshitia.
Right now, only 3% of people tested are positive. Let’s assume that false positives and false negatives will cancel out each other in large enough samples. Still, even if we tested 138 crore people, barely 1 lakh may turn out positive. But eventually, 4 crore will get infected.
The main problem with the article is that it selectively chose the numbers that are favourable to its core thesis while being blind towards the other aspects.
It’s like a cat drinking milk with eyes closed, believing that no one else can see its treachery.
It’s like a cat drinking milk with eyes closed, believing that no one else can see its treachery.
Sorry @CholericCleric bhai for a lengthy response that kind of turned out to be a rant.
Since you are already covered till 2025, I am sure I didn’t scare you.
