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Many more people have died from corona, when looking at all deaths, not just public corona deaths

because of underreporting and people dying of other diseases while hospitals busy tackling corona

Great story from New York Times: nytimes.com/interactive/20…
Interestingly, the only country to accurately describe the number of corona deaths was Sweden

nytimes.com/interactive/20…
The Economist has a similar article

economist.com/graphic-detail…
It shows that all nations are underreporting
There is also an interesting *under*mortality in many countries because of a less-than-normal deadly winter/flu, as shown here from France (the gap between the expected deaths and the actual, lower deaths in January-March)
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
World Economic Forum released its risk assessment for the coming 1.5 years:

All about recession & unemployment, economics and of course a second wave of corona

www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_COVID…
Here is the full list of concerns for the next 1.5 years
No large environmental concerns — swamped by economic and others

Interestingly, World Economic Forum had over the past 15 years increasingly come to see the environment as the riskiest issue (here just months earlier)

www3.weforum.org/docs/WEF_Globa…
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Cost of Norway's corona school closure

The main cost is hidden: students will learn less, and be less productive in the coming decades

$160 lost per pupil per day

Total per day:
$137 million lost learning
$22 million lost parent productivity

ssb.no/nasjonalregnsk…
Each day, Norway produce $912m in GDP

Total school closure each day cost $159m

In total, more than 17% of daily GDP lost every day the schools are closed

(Norway GDP is 3.5 trillion NOK for 2019, ssb.no/nasjonalregnsk…, or 9.7bn NOK per day)
Norwegian Institute of Public Health told government not to close schools, which could make corona more contagious.

The Prime Minister decided to close schools anyway because Denmark did so and pressure from local politicians

dagbladet.no/nyheter/sa-ifr…
omni.se/kallor-experte…
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Bjorn Lomborg
@BjornLomborg
Hard to keep people locked down:

In Norway:
1st week after lockdown 65% movement reduction
One month later, only 34% reduction

(based on mobile data, nrk.no/norge/mer-beve…)
This is why moderate distancing is a more plausible and sustainable long-term strategy

Moderate social distancing

- has more deaths in short run, but much fewer in long run

- is sustainable, because 1) people can live locked down like Sweden but not like Italy in long run; 2) long-run lockdown costs lower

forbes.com/sites/bjornlom…
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