Deep breath. In the last five weeks, more than 24 million workers applied for unemployment insurance. That is more than one in seven workers. 1/ 
All else equal, job losses of this magnitude would translate into an unemployment rate of 18.3%. However, the official unemployment rate won't reflect that because people are only counted as unemployed if they are actively seeking work, which is currently impossible. 2/
What share of workers who applied for UI in this pandemic are actually getting benefits? The data to get at that are lagged a week, but it looks like about 71% are getting benefits. The rest—7 million of them—are still waiting. 3/
Note: DOL reports 2 figures for workers who applied for UI in the last 5 weeks, 26.5 mil (seasonally adjusted) and 24.4 mil (not adjusted). The way DOL does seasonal adjustments is weird right now, so I use the unadjusted numbers because that’s the actual number of claims. 4/
In the period before the coronavirus hit, just over a million workers applied for UI in a typical five-week span, and in the *worst* five-week stretch of the Great Recession, it was less than four million. In the last five weeks, it was more than 24 million. 5/
On the chart earlier in this thread, the last five observations look like they are in a vertical line because the x-axis covers 50+ years and the increase in the last five weeks is so extreme. This chart shows just the last year so you can see details. 6/
Initial data on job loss by gender show women have been hit harder than men. We don't yet have good data by race/ethnicity, but b/c black and brown workers are more concentrated in frontline service jobs, they are likely experiencing greater job loss. 7/ epi.org/blog/women-hav…
The UI claims of the last five weeks, while extraordinary, don’t include people who aren’t eligible for regular UI but are nevertheless out of work due to the virus—people like gig workers or independent contractors, and many others. 8/
The CARES Act created Pandemic Unemployment Assistance (PUA), which will provide unemp benefits to many who fall through the gaps in our regular UI system (like gig workers). But in almost all states, PUA is still being set up, so those workers can’t yet get benefits. 9/
Short-Time Compensation is an alternative to layoffs where employers reduce work hours rather than lay off workers, & workers get partial UI. But on 4/4, 39,864 workers were receiving STC, a tiny fraction of the 12.4 million receiving regular state benefits at that time. 10/
Job loss is ongoing. Based on GDP forecasts, we project that near-term job losses could exceed 30 million. And, since our health care system ties health insurance to work, workers aren’t just losing their jobs. 11/ epi.org/blog/9-2-milli…
The CARES act, and the interim coronavirus bill, have some great provisions, but they are no match for this crisis, and federal policymakers need to do more. Here’s an idea of what the next relief and recovery package should look like. 12/ epi.org/blog/a-phase-f…
State and local governments should get $500 billion in aid. And, the next relief and recovery act should include strong protections for workers, and funding to safeguard our democracy. 13/ epi.org/blog/at-least-… epi.org/blog/the-next-…
And we can't turn off federal relief too early. The expiration of relief provisions should be tied to economic conditions. Even under the best case scenario (a rapid bounce-back in the second half of the year) the unemp rate will likely still be close to 8% a year from now. 14/
This chart shows initial unemployment insurance claims over the last 50+ years, this time with recession-shading. The jobless claims of the last five weeks are more than five times the worst five-week stretch of the Great Recession. 15/
This blog post is basically this thread all in one place, if helpful. 16/ epi.org/blog/in-the-la…
And do you like maps?? This blog post has the UI numbers by state. 17/ epi.org/blog/new-state… @JuliaWolfe94 @joriskywalker
