Based on the data from studies in New York City, Boston, Stanford/Santa Clara County, & USC/LA County it now seems quite clear that the coronavirus is far more common and far less deadly than most have modeled & believed.
This means we need a more sophisticated and targeted public policy response going forward into May. General rule should be if you’re under fifty and healthy go back to your life. The danger from the virus is very small to you. But you should avoid interacting with seniors.
If you are over 50, unhealthy or have a suppressed immune system you should continue, again as a general rule, to quarantine.
This would allow virus to primarily circulate among younger, healthy citizens, those who are least likely to have severe health outcomes. It would allow America to begin to attain herd immunity with the infected being primarily young & healthy, thereby limiting health care strain
Instead of a one size fits all, blanket policy, we should be adjusting our health & economic policies to reflect what the data is telling us: most infected people will be fine, but the elderly and those with suppressed immune systems are in danger. The rest of us need to work.
A policy that 100% makes zero sense, both for the health and the economy, is the idea that everyone should continue to quarantine until a vaccine is found. This, not surprisingly, appears to be the preferred choice of the blue checkmark brigade on here.
If you want to be more aggressive, you could push this age to sixty, but there is minimal risk to any healthy person under fifty if you look at the mortality tables.
