Thread by @GovPritzker

Since the outbreak of #COVID19, I’ve taken into consideration a variety of models from researchers across the world, some of which you’ve seen in the public sphere – and in these models, there are often widely different projections about the state of Illinois.

The earliest #COVID19 models we had in the U.S. had to rely upon data from other countries applied to our national landscape.

But we get a better picture by looking at what’s actually happening on the ground in Illinois, data that can only be gathered with the passage of time.

To be clear, there is no crystal ball available to us.

There are only estimates.

Illinois is the proud home to some of the finest researchers and research institutions in the world – and still, it is always the case that different modeling teams come to different conclusions.

So, I undertook a project to give me the best approximations of future #COVID19 illnesses in Illinois. That informs our decisions about what resources are needed to keep Illinoisans alive & recovering and what urgency is required in initiating or extending mitigation strategies.

We convened top researchers from @Illinois_Alma, @NorthwesternMed, @UChicago, @ChiPublicHealth, @IDPH, along with outside consulting groups. They worked as a cohort under @CivisAnalytics using the most comprehensive data available for the entire state.

Illinois is now looking at a peak or plateau of deaths per day between late April and early May.

Weeks ago, many models predicted an earlier peak, but as time went on, inputs got better, real-time data came in, and importantly, Illinoisans protected each other by staying home.

Pushing out our estimated “peak” is a natural consequence & the best indicator of flattening the curve.

That’s what you’re aiming to do: slow down the rate of transmission, which leads to a slower rate of increase over a longer period of time – hence, a later and lower peak.

Make no mistake, Illinois has saved lives.

By staying home and social distancing, we have kept our infection and death rates for the months of March and April thousands below the rates projected had we not implemented these mitigation strategies.

While we’ve built up our hospital capacity significantly, if we let up now, we wouldn't have the capacity we would need.

If we lifted the Stay at Home order tomorrow, we'd see our deaths-per-day shoot into the thousands by the end of May and that would last well into the summer.

These projections present us with only one choice.

Next week, I intend to sign an extension of our Stay at Home order, with some modifications, through Saturday, May 30th.

I know how badly we all want our normal lives back.

But this is the part where we have to dig in and understand that the sacrifices we’ve made as a state to avoid a worst-case scenario are working — and we need to keep going a little while longer to finish the job.

On an optimistic note, May will look somewhat different than March and April.

My intention as always is to put your health and safety first as we make some practical adjustments based on what we’ve learned the first five weeks of the stay at home order.

Because we are bending the curve, surgi-centers & hospitals can begin non-life-threatening surgeries.

Retail stores can offer pick-up and delivery.

Some of our state parks can reopen for hiking, fishing & boating with no more than two people.

All these changes begin on May 1.

We’re also strengthening our public health measures:

Wearing a face covering will be required in a public place where you can’t maintain a 6-ft social distance.

For essential businesses, incl. manufacturers, we're issuing new social distancing requirements & new occupancy caps.

Understand that these are not choices made arbitrarily – these changes are what the data says we can offer the people of Illinois without risking so much viral transmission that our hospitals become overrun.

That said, if we start to see crowds and people violating the order or breaking the rules, I will need to bring back these restrictions. I’m hopeful we won’t need to do that.

We have the opportunity to prevent the pain of loss from touching the lives of thousands.

I’ve said all along that I will fight like hell for you.

I’m asking you to hold on for a little while longer, to help make sure we ALL see it to the other side of this struggle.