Thread by @YossiGestetner

Cuomo closed NY assuming that 1 million cases at Apex will lead to 130K in the hospital + 30K ICUs all at once. Actual ICUs were way less; Cuomo credits mitigation. However NY already had 2.7 million cases. In Cuomo math that’s 351,000 hospitalizations + 81,000 ICUs all at once.

Cuomo suggests we did not need 30K ICUs at once (out of 1 million cases) because mitigation worked (meaning we didn’t have close to 1 million cases).

Um, tests indicate NY already HAD 2.7 million cases despite mitigation.

Point? His assumptions about the ICU need is/was flawed.

Cuomo is keeping NY closed under the old assumption of a very high Hospital/ICU rate and that mitigation saved the day.

Turns out mitigation did not work as good as Cuomo thinks. Instead, we didn’t need so many ICUs because the ICU rate is a fraction of what he thinks it is.

If/since NY already had this week 2.7 million cases, it easly had more than half of that a few weeks ago which led to the Apex the second week of April.

1.6 million cases.

5,100 in ICU at high point.

0.31% ICU rate.

Cuomo still operates under an assumed 3.0% ICU Rate.

March 23, New York’s hospital rate was 13%. Cuomo said he will need 130K beds and 30K-40K ICUs at Apex.

This assumes 1 million cases at Apex.

Turns out - per antibodies tests and a test of pregnant women - that NY already had 2.7 milliom cases yet the ICU high point was 5,100.

Cuomo closed NY thinking that 1 million Covid cases will generate a need for 30K - 40K ICU beds at Apex.

In the end it was at least 1.6 million cases but only 5,100 ICUs at Apex.

We are still locked down based on the assumption that 1 million cases will need 30K+ ICU.

“About 15% of pregnant women admitted to two maternity wards in northern Manhattan in late March and early April were already infected with the new coronavirus.” - Columbia. This aligns with the antibodies test results of this week that 21% of NYC already had Corona.

We learned yesterday that the ICU rate in NY, a key factor in lockdown policies, was 90% lower than thought pre-lockdown through yesterday. Still, @NYGovCuomo did not announce a 25% ease up in lockdown measures. You know, start by 25% just to be safe. Nope. Nada. Zero. Nothing.

oy. Oy. OY! @NYGovCuomo says the antibodies tests is not accurate because children & essential workers were not tested. Um, if you add those two classes, a larger percent of NY is imune because children are “silent carriers” and essential workers are much more exposed. HELLO?

Antibodies show 13.9% NY is immune. If the tests had children and essential workers (both higher carriers as Cuomo says it needs) then an even higher % NY is immune (and ICU rates are even lower than what the tests suggest)!

Cuomo thinks the “inaccurate” runs the orher way.

1/2

Cuomo shutdown NY assuming a +3% ICU rate.

Antibodies tests show many more people had Corona so this means the ICU rate is maybe 0.31%; a fraction of what Cuomp assumed.

Cuomo says those tests are inaccurate because it doesn’t include children/essential workers.

But...

2/2 If you add those high carriers to the pool, then even a higher portion of NY will be seen as immune. This means the ICU rate is EVEN LOWER than the 0.31%.

Basically, Cuomo takes a data point that is on the side of more opening and he thinks it proves to contine being closed.