Getz Pharma tested 1000 employees for COVID of whom 7% tested were +ve. A large percentage of these were presymptomatic or asymptomatic. While this sample (age group 18-65 to start with) can't be necessarily be extrapolated to Karachi as many as 0.7m people in the city wud be +ve
If the same 7% ratio is applied to the entire population of Karachi, it would imply as many 1.5mn are already infected. It is important to note that Getz pharma employee sample may not be representative for entire city. There could be specific reasons for atypicality of this grp
However, if for a moment we assume it is representative, then it suggests that COVID is already much more prevalent in the city and possibly the country. It also hints that the hospitalisation and fatality rate are much less severe then currently shown by official statistics.
The data also seems to corroborate similar but more broadly based test surveys in Sweden and New York. Both in Stockholm and NYC as many 20% of the sample population tested positive, which again is significantly higher than the officially tested figures. There appears to be a
pattern emerging that should give policy makers pause for thought. Given the possibility of already widespread presence of the virus in urban communities, would it make any sense to continue with lockdown. Also given that a large %age of people seems to be asymptomatic, there is
may be a case to consider the application of the herd immunity strategy, but obviously with the proviso that they most vulnerable members of society are provided adequate protection. It's also worth noting that over 54% of Pakistanis are below the age of 18. All empirical points
that the fatality and even hospitalisation rates among those below 30 is extremely low. The demographics of society has to be a critical factor in the design of any policy response. It must be such that those least likely to be affected can operate more freely than now, while
they don't become vectors for infecting the most vulnerable (eg the elderly and immunocompromised). This requires meticulous planning and societal cooperation. However, it's not impossible, and possibly much more sustainable than psychologically and economically unbearable lockup
Finally any claim of innate immunity among general population needs to be tested rigorously & with a wider dispersal of communities than this ltd study, they do say, "initial findings from the Getz Pharma census may be suggestive of an innate immunity in the Pakistani population"
