**********PUBLIC ENCOMIUM*********

I, a lowly citizen of the Islamic Republic of Pakistan, acclaim from the deepest bowels of goodness that not enough praise can express our grovelling gratitude to THE institution for its sacrifices & benevolence (although touts r trying hard). Let it be constitutionally enshrined that all political parties and their ideologies must be towards service of THE institution.

Any deviant thoughts promoted by miscreants demanding absurd notions of democracy/civil liberties must be denounced and repressed with an iron fist.

After the abysmal failure of Import Substitution (IS) as state policy to achieve economic nirvana, the new ploy of rentiers is to promote the dubious idea Export Oriented industrialisation (EOI).

Both ignore the consumer and assume the state has superior knowledge about markets. In a manner both are two faces of the same coin, where the interests of certain producers (export oriented)are to be promoted by the state inevitably at the cost of other producers (domestic market focussed). It will inevitably imply protection for the nascent exporters

The Fact Finding Report by Athar Waheed & @omarshamid is meticulous detective work. In any country governed by laws it would serve to indict those that are most likely to be culpable of such an organised murder with powerful forces behind it. Thank you @mayet1111 for link below

https://twitter.com/mayet1111/status/1602537401334714369

There’s detailed trail of the multiple threats Arshad Sharif faced once FIRs started being filed all across the country. Interestingly 3 FIRs on same day with “..the contents of all FIRs are almost same with allegation that Mr. Arshad Sharif is involved in false propaganda …”

Just as dreadful as the idea of import substitution are policies of promoting an export oriented economy. Both open the door to subsidies and misallocation of resources. Both equally harmful. Both equally ignore the most important component in an economy - the citizen & consumer. The focus of all state policies - economic, legal and otherwise - must be to seek the highest degree of freedom for individuals and productive capabilities that best meet consumption needs of a free people that can freely transact goods and services at their greatest ease.

Sobering assessment of India as an investment destination in @ForeignAffairs:

• growth rate over past 3 years has been just 2.5%

• not much evidence that foreign firms are relocating production to India

• overall FDI has stagnated for the past decade reader.foreignaffairs.com/2022/12/09/why… Main reasons why global firms are reluctant to shift their China operations to India, incl:

• perceived lack of consistency & impartiality in policy framework

• high tariffs to inputs - a powerful disincentive for firms looking to investment in India (@gonwei @EconomistAadil)

Dar’s comment about wanting to use government agencies, presumably security related ones, to reduce the gap between the interbank and curb PKR rates was telling - essentially that he’s clueless. He thinks of the economy in linear accounting terms and cannot see the feedback loops that result from his knee jerk reactions to a market problem. It could be that he’s never heard of law of unintended consequences, and if he’s done not considered it’s many ramifications. It could be also that he has an abiding distrust of the markets since he can’t control them.

The kitten looks cute but when the governments play whac-a-mole in applying administrative to solve market clearing problems it only worsens them.

Our external debt repayments problems are not going solved by artificially imposing controls through ham-handed government measures.

https://twitter.com/SShabbarZaidi/status/1599076123992027137

These admin measures are aimed at contracting domestic demand & preventing $ outflow. That’s understandable given the ext debt crises the country faces.
However, capital rationing & imposing restrictions, aren’t sustainable. They aren’t effective & eventually have to be removed.

One of the most malign influences in Pakistan’s economic progress and concurrent development of democracy have been the so called technocrats. They’ve not only actively been part of various dictatorship but have promoted the belief that people don’t know what’s best for them. Their role cannot be underestimated in facilitating in the dictatorships of Ayub, Zia & Musharraf. The East Bengal catastrophe was largely facilitated by such technocrats that felt that an extractive model could sustained indefinitely without the oppressed Bengali people reacting

This is to some of young(er) followers. Learn not to care too much about peoples qualifications or so called credentials. Just because a Nobel laureate is saying something doesn’t make it right. Einstein was a genius laureate, but opposed the idea of quantum physics and was wrong Do not be too impressed by peoples designations. Very often these are acquired by aggressively networking and all manner of unfair processes rather than dint of effort or/& real talent, especially in countries like Pakistan. Again get what you can get out from important people,

If we want to know why Pakistan is an utter failure as a nation, we ought to study how the junta treated East Pakistan. The junta was enabled by the bureaucracy, business groups & educated elite. This small clique exploited the East’s resources & denied its people representation. East Bengal had 55% of the total Pakistan population, but between 1950 and 1970 of the total government expenditure of approximately $31bn, West Pakistan received 69% or $21.5 bn. The East on received $9.5bn. The East’s exports constituted 59% of the total while imports only 30%

At some point we’ll get it that in order to avoid default rolling over the external debt by one year every time it becomes due is disastrous for the economy. It creates a snowball effect of debt due becoming ever larger. This year $24b, next $40b, and so on - cumulatively growing The overhang of ever growing external debt burden that every year has to be renegotiated means the country’s top fin leadership’s energy will be spent almost nonstop just trying to avoid default. Given the overhang we’re effectively shut out from debt markets for sometime to come

Those celebrating @ImranKhanPTI and distributing mitthai may be doing so a bit prematurely. @salmanAraja makes clear: “If IK filed deficient asset statements, prosecution u/s 137 of the Elect Act 2017 was possible within 120 days of filing of such statements….This was not done.” He further states: “Filing a wrong statement of assets does not lead to disqualification. Disqualification can occur only if prosecution is commenced within 120 days of filing and upon conviction sentence of two years of more is awarded. This is no longer possible”

Some are lamenting possible replacement of Miftah as FM. Many of them claim he saved the country from default. While everyone has a right to their biases, it might be worth getting a full perspective, such as, Miftah actually worsened the default probability. B4 screaming.. 1/n consider this: the delay in the raising of fuel prices and power tariffs was the main reason increased uncertainty & balloon subsidy losses. As FM it was incumbent on Miftah to convince the PM to accept these measures before IMF imposed them as prior actions to revive EFF 2/n

Discussed with @SanaMaqboool and @FarrukhKPitafi on @WorldPTV the possibility of #debt relief for Pakistan subsequent to the devastating #floods as a result of climate change Rather than rolling over Pakistan’s existing debt by one year, the debt needs to restructured such that repayments are pushed back by 10-15 years. Also rather than taking on new loans we should insist on grants. External debt sustainability has reached its limit

GoP FY22-23 is quite a difficult budget to decipher because it so full of inconsistencies that seem deliberately planted to befuddle anyone trying to make sense of it.
Let’s start with the 11.5% inflation assumption. Currently CPI is close to 13.5% and this does not include the impact of fuel price increases. That will undoubtedly push inflation close to 15%. There’s further Rs11/litre and Rs23/litre on petrol & diesel to come that will further add to inflationary pressures. The budget assumes Rs750bn petroleum levy. Therefore there’ll be at least Rs70

Blame the US and all the other external forces all you want, but none is more responsible for economic disaster that faces Pakistan than ‘the handler of the 3 stooges’. Since the tabling of VONC, FX reserves have fallen by $5.7B, inflation has risen to 13.4%, & T-Bill rate to 15% The Pakistan EuroBond has spiked up to above 16% and credit default swap to over 12%. Effectively international debt markets doors are shut to Pakistan. Since the IMF program is in suspension & all of traditional friends of Pakistan have now refused to provide additional funding

Momentary melancholy

I am afraid of late
Cold sweat trickles down my temple
Fear I did have not have facing death
Cancer could not be more pernicious
Than the repetitions
Of the tedium of old salutations
That tired line of repeat loop conversations I am afraid of late
I shall not meet a new face
With phosphorus burning like thought
To shock and scare
Yet in deathly staleness breathe new life

#امپورٹڈ_حکومت_نامنظور

#MarchAgainstImportedGovt

Most countries have faced at some point in their history critical tests which define them. But in few do the intelligentsia show such pusillanimous despair and despondency as in Pakistan. In few do the most privileged abandon the vast majority with such casual disdain. The decent, god-fearing, hard working & generally tolerant masses remain voiceless yet hopeful. They have neither foreign qualifications, offshore assets, posh club membership, or a portfolio of assets in the country. Since they have little, the cannot afford but remain hopeful.

When Henry V positioned his army for battle on a recently plowed field (that turned to bog when it rained), bounded by woods the limited the advantage of numbers that the French enjoyed, he knew the terrain favoured his army and disadvantaged the opponent. The subsequent battle led to abject defeat for the French a fair chunk of their aristocracy perishing under rain of English arrows. 

As is the choice of battlefield in war key to success, in politics the setting of the agenda for battle lies real political mastery.

As one said a few months backs and repeatedly since, stock market can be throwaway cheap but without new liquidity it’ll keep getting cheaper. As soonest the IMF program was put on hold a downward trajectory was inevitable down. PE can be as attractive as you want but if there’s no confidence in the overall macro direction the market will tank, and that it has promptly done. The idea of a providing procyclical stimulus to an already sharply recovering economy was bound to lead to overheating and ever expanding trade deficits. To delay tariff hikes only