Thread by @ClimateBen

Arctic sea ice will disappear by around 2029 according to satellite observations, triggering a rapid acceleration of global warming and sudden destabilisation of the global climate. This will result in catastrophically hostile new conditions for most life on Earth.

THREAD

Although climate models show the Arctic will be ice free in the summer by 2023 - 2049 (with one projection from a new paper showing 2034 as most likely), scientists note that satellite observations left out of models suggest 2025-2033 looks more likely.ncei.noaa.gov/news/arctic-ic…

Another recent paper confirms that summer Arctic sea ice disappearance is set for between 2020 and 2049, even with immediate emergency emissions reductions. agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.102…

A third very recent report shows no summer sea ice by the 2030s as likely (a 60% chance), though this is based on statistical analysis, not satellite data.

"for the rest of the century and onward, it’s hard to think of anything more globally important".

penntoday.upenn.edu/news/Arctic-co…

The Arctic - which is the fastest warming place on Earth - has already entered an unprecedented state that 'threatens global climate stability'. The loss of summer Arctic sea ice will increase powerful and highly dangerous albedo and permafrost feedbacks. commondreams.org/news/2019/04/0…

"Once the ice is gone, the Arctic Ocean will absorb more heat from the atmosphere, which will only make our climate predicament worse."

This comment (from a researcher working on carbon and nutrients from run-off in the Arctic Ocean) sums it up.

sciencedaily.com/releases/2020/…

See also this 2013 study:

'We have investigated three approaches to predicting 21st century summer Arctic sea ice loss...

Time horizons for summer sea ice loss of these three approaches turns out to be roughly 2020, 2030, and 2040 respectively agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/full/10.10…