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Apr 26, 2020 5 tweets 3 min read Read on X
In a pandemic, if R0>1, individual behavior has collective effects (the effect is, hum, exponential).
The aim of a lockdown is to reduce virus spreading.

Alice wants to go out and meet with her friend Bob.

#covid_19 #publicgood #socialbiology #gametheory #socialpsychology
Since the lockdown is well respected, the number of cases dropped. Alice and Bob feels healthy. They are convinced they are not infected. They go out and have long stroll in the park.
In other terms: Most people paid a cost (stayed home) and produced a benefit available for everyone (by reducing virus prevalence in the population). Alice and Bob take advantage of the benefit, but they don't pay the cost of production. They are cheaters.
Of course, when everyone defects, the benefit drops. The virus spreads and people die. Then Alice and Bob get scared and stay home.

It is tempting to cheat. But if we all cheat, we lose.
@flodebarre @jorgeapenas Am I wrong? Why didn't I see game theory analysis of the lockdown? Why don't we use the name "cheaters" for people who don't respect the lockdown? What can we learn from theoretical studies of game theory?

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More from @Max_Deforet

May 31, 2021
À l'occasion de la publication de ce livre, je me dis qu'il est tant de raconter une anecdote qui date de mars 2020. Quinze mois plus tard, il y a prescription, Yanis ne m'en voudra pas.
Le 17 mars, Raoult (et ses collègues) publie le fameux article sur son traitement à l'hydroxychloroquine. Je prends le temps de le lire et de relever toutes les erreurs statistiques, etc. Dans la foulée, l'IHU publie des papiers presque tous les jours.
Je regarde notamment ce papier hallucinant, "La peur contre les données" qui cherche à démontrer qu'on meurt davantage d'un rhume que du Covid-19. pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/32201354/.
Je publie un thread qui a son petit succès. J'interpelle son premier auteur, Yanis Roussel, sur Twitter.
Read 17 tweets
Oct 13, 2020
I believe #EmilyInParis viewers should know a historical fact about where she lives: Place de l'Estrapade.

It's located in the Fifth Arrondissement, in the Quartier Latin, one of the oldest neighborhoods in Paris.
Until 1687, this cute little place hosted an 'estrapade', or 'strappado', a torture instrument that is not exactly Instagram-friendly.
It consisted in suspending the victim by a rope tied to the wrists, behind their back, resulting in dislocated shoulders.
To speed up death (and/or to make it more dramatic), a layer of sadism was added: the rope was released then abruptly blocked just before the victim touched the ground, leading to further pain and dislocation. #EmilyInParis
Read 5 tweets
Sep 26, 2020
A friend asked me why the number of cases is increasing while the reproduction number (R) is stable.

The answer is obvious for someone who is used to concepts like functions, curves, derivatives, primitives.

For others, it's impenetrable.
I'm not going to make a long thread out of it, but a simple comparison:
- In a car, when you press the gas pedal, you move forward. More precisely: you accelerate.
- The position of the car increases, the speed of the car increases, the acceleration is constant.
If you barely release the gas pedal, the position will continue to increase (the car is still moving), the speed still increases, however the acceleration remains constant but at a lower level.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 25, 2020
Un ami vient de me demander pourquoi le taux de positivité augmente alors que le R est stable.

La réponse est évidente pour quelqu'un qui a l'habitude manipuler des courbes, des fonctions, des dérivées, et des primitives.
Pour les autres, c'est incompréhensible.
Je vais pas en faire un long thread, mais une simple comparaison.
- En voiture vous appuyez sur l'accélérateur, vous avancez, et plus précisément : vous accélérez.
- La position de la voiture augmente, la vitesse de la voiture augmente, l'accélération est constante.
Si vous relâchez à peine l'accélérateur, la position continuera à augmenter (la voiture roule toujours), la vitesse augmente encore, par contre l'accélération est constante mais plus faible.
Read 7 tweets
Sep 19, 2020
Instant veille journalisme US:
Une éditrice du Guardian US fait un grand appel pour trouver de nouvelles plumes, via Twitter, et propose de skyper avec des freelances pour discuter. Des centaines de réponses.
Depuis quelques temps les chroniqueurs du NYT discutent pendant une heure sur Periscope après la publication de leurs chroniques, avec questions/réponses. Ça permet de voir le travail de fond qui est fait (c'est souvent des chroniques très argumentées).
Il existe une page sur le site du NYT qui rassemblent toutes les corrections : nytimes.com/section/correc…
Avec également la liste des articles (et tribunes) concernés.
Il faut se rendre compte du niveau de méticulosité. Image
Read 4 tweets
Sep 6, 2020
Published in Advances in Genetics, which does not provide the list of Editorial Board members. Who accepted this paper?
Any opinion, Prof. @GenomeKumar?
Oh, I found the names of the two editors of the next issue of Advances in Genetics, called "Cosmic Genetic Evolution": they are Edward Steele and N. Chandra Wickramasinghe, who are, hum, respectively first and last authors of that paper. Image
Read 4 tweets

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