Woke up to good news from Israel on ending the Coronavirus lockdown this morning, which I think should be shared widely in English.
With the appropriate caveats that I am not an expert in any relevant field, here's my best understanding of what the Israeli government is doing to end the lockdown:
Israel has had ~200 deaths and ~15,000 confirmed cases so far. It was early to close flights and impose lockdowns.
This morning government announced major relaxation of lockdown: Most businesses allowed to open with the exception of entertainment venues and mass gatherings. Selective lockdown remain on a few (mostly ultra-Orthodox) communities where adherence to guidance has been low.
Most interestingly, the government is imposing an age-based and points-based system for guiding individuals. People over 70 are still on total lockdown and must stay home. People over 65 with any pre-existing conditions must also stay home.
People 50-69 must stay home if they score 2 point or higher on a list of risk factors. People aged 30-49 must stay home if they score 4 or higher on the same scale of risk factors.
The risk factors include: heart/blood issues, diabetes, high blood pressure, smoking for more than ten years, BMI>30, hospitalizations of any kind in the last three years (one point for each hospitalization).
All restaurants/cafes (including falafel stands) are open for take away only. Malls and covered markets remain closed. All other stores are open, but must have social distancing, temperature checks, and antibacterial disinfectant available.
Interestingly, lockdown relaxation will be allowed to continue only so long as new cases remain at 300/day or less and so long as the doubling time remains over 10 days (it is currently at 21 days).
Again, I'm no expert, but these seems like a sensible set of guidelines - and it offers hope.
Worth noting: masks are required in public and there is a NIS 200 (~$60) fine on the spot for not wearing a mask.
No "stay-at-home" orders in place for under 30 year olds. Government has determined that low-risk under-30s acquire immunity in a way that involved very little excess mortality.
What I think is particularly notable here is that the Israeli government is treating citizens as adults: providing transparency and granting them agency in helping the country exit the lockdown.
Correction: Most of the above is govt policy. The "points-based" system is apparently a proposal that has not yet been formally adopted. The rest of the measures are (as far as I can tell) policy: timesofisrael.com/300-new-sick-a…
Correction: Most of the above is govt policy. The "points-based" system is apparently a proposal that has not yet been formally adopted. The rest of the measures are (as far as I can tell) policy: timesofisrael.com/300-new-sick-a…
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What are the implications of this? For Founders? For VCs? No wrong answers. Curious to hear thoughts. "YC’s $500,000 Standard Deal" blog.ycombinator.com/ycs-standard-d…
My take: (1) definitely good for YC; (2) probably neutral to negative for most founders (it's not a lot of cash, but it puts the squeeze on the next round, especially if that round is small)
(3) Puts a ton of pressure on founders to increase the valuation of the next round, which creates its own set of issues.
Wow. Hearing of case after case of "big boy" Series A+ VCs literally fighting to stick big checks into very early-stage companies I'm not comfortable putting small checks into. This market is . . . . . interesting.
Assuming both the Series A+ guys and I am acting rationally and with some skill - what is going on? What explains the inverted risk curve of the VC market? After all, as a small first-check firm, I'm supposed to be taking MORE risk than they are.....
I think what has happened is that we have moved wholesale into a momentum market. What's a momentum market? The more money you raise, the more money you will raise. Because there is so much money looking for a home.
Most of crypto is a fraud perpetrated by "technical" people on non-technical people. The mathematics may be legit. (I don't really know. I am not a PhD. Neither are most of you.) But the use cases are demonstrably not legit and driven by speculative greed and social proof.
The second worst aspect of this is that many of these technical people have convinced themselves of the legitimacy of the crypto industry and can credibly claim to have good motivations. They are, for the most, victims of self-delusion and confirmation bias.
The worst aspect of this is that a generation of impressionable citizen investors is being trained to speculate on intrinsically worthless "assets" in the mistaken belief that they are participating in some social or technical revolution. They are not.
The atmosphere of sheer panic among VCs these days is disconcerting. If I was an LP, I would be sitting on my hands right now. Up and down the capital stack, people have lost their wits, if not their minds.
How do I know? Two things: (1) speed and (2) strategy drift.
(1) Speed. Things are moving so insanely fast there is literally no way anyone is doing any due diligence or actual research at all. No one is asking hard questions. Since "everything goes up and only up" better go faster.
Index closes $200 million dedicated seed fund to intensify multi-stage thesis tcrn.ch/2PJPaSJ via @techcrunch
@TechCrunch What I love about this is the framing. Index's roots were in taking early stage bets on European startups when almost no one else believed Europe could generate great VC returns. But Index did.
@TechCrunch Index was early and high-conviction. And it seems Origins is returning Index to those roots.
I'm not sure this is true, but I am starting to think it might be. Thesis: seed funds and "accelerators" basically can no longer work together. Choose one path and you self-select out of the other.
The best seed funds, like Angular, have gotten pretty good at adding a ton of value and connecting portfolio companies with customers and investors. We're willing to write big checks and build great syndicates - and in many cases, we add a lot of signaling power.
If you have a great seed fund onboard, you don't really "need" the benefits of an accelerator - and they are probably not worth the significant dilution that they involve. The seed funds should get you to the Series A.