1. One of the ways Iran has achieved resilience in the face of sanctions is by increasing economic "complexity."
Looking to 835 categories of goods (HS4 level) for which we have trade data each year between 2008-2018, total value fell in just 349 of those categories.
Looking to 835 categories of goods (HS4 level) for which we have trade data each year between 2008-2018, total value fell in just 349 of those categories.
2. Looking across all 835 goods categories, the growth in non-oil exports is key. Even though the value of oil exports (as captured in this dataset) was $12bn lower in 2018 vs. 2008, the total trade was just $4.5bn lower. This is how Iran managed to compensate.
3. In 2008, there were just 21 categories of goods out of the 835 total which generated over $1bn in revenue for Iran.
A decade later, that number had grown to 35, even though this is the period in which both the Obama and Trump administrations levied their broad sanctions.
A decade later, that number had grown to 35, even though this is the period in which both the Obama and Trump administrations levied their broad sanctions.
4. @JIHaidar has done some great work on this method of Iranian resilience, which he termed "export deflection," but generally speaking the evolution of Iran's trade patterns has been surprisingly understudied given its importance to a whole host of issues. More soon...
