1. A new EU regulation limiting the export of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) during the #COVID19 crisis risks the safety of doctors and nurses in non-EU countries, including Iran.
Iran imported $167m of PPE in 2018, of which 19% came from the EU.
bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2020/…
Iran imported $167m of PPE in 2018, of which 19% came from the EU.
bourseandbazaar.com/articles/2020/…
2. My analysis builds on work by @ChadBown, published last week. Looking to export data for the products subject to the new EU regulation, Bown shows that the EU is a major supplier to many countries around the world now confronting #COVID19.
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
piie.com/blogs/trade-an…
3. I analyzed the same trade data for Iran and the picture is similarly concerning. There are two key observations: EU exports of PPE to Iran were already down *before* the #COVID19 outbreak due to US secondary sanctions. Still, Iran can't afford to lose the EU as a supplier now.
4. PPE items are not easily classed as "humanitarian" goods because they can be used outside medical contexts. This has left EU exports exposed to US sanctions pressure. Total trade value fell from €39m in 2017 to just €13m last year. 
5. As the EU share of Iranian PPE imports fell, China's share grew. But, the EU is still a crucial supplier. In the category of face shields—half of total global PPE exports to Iran in 2018—the EU accounted for 35% of total exports to Iran.
6. Even if Iran's reliance on EU exports is limited to face shields, that's no saving grace. You need the full set of PPE items to keep doctors and nurses safe. As @ChadBown writes, "Being cut off from even one could significantly hamper the effectiveness of medical care."
7. Plus, Iran may be less dependent on the EU than other countries (the face shield export share in Turkey is 54%), it is still *more* vulnerable overall. Sanctions-related administrative burdens will put Iranian importers at the back of the line in the new export control regime.
8. The EU's approach is understandable given the immense challenge facing Europe's healthcare sector (see @vonderleyen's announcement here). Of course, EU has a primary duty of care to Europeans. But it is not clear that this is approach is the right one.
9. @ChadBown warns that the new EU regulation could be “self-defeating,” both because it may serve to “disrupt supply chains” and also because the new act could “block EU exports of vital equipment to the world’s poorest victims of the pandemic.”
10. European citizens will remain vulnerable so long as #COVID19 remains uncontained or untreated just beyond the borders of the EU. And the EU may be missing out on greater resiliency by cutting, rather than retooling, supply chains that cross its borders.
11. Countries like Iran, Turkey, Russia have large manufacturing bases. The same notions of comparative advantage that led to the creation of today’s complex supply chains should inform their retooling during the #COVID19 crisis.
12. Rather than impose export controls on all PPE, the EU could support the ramp-up of production capacity for basic PPE (surgical masks) in countries like Iran, while focusing on producing more advanced PPE (face shields). Surplus on each side will enable exports.
13. Politically, the new regulation is already creating rifts between the EU and countries in its immediate neighborhood. China is opportunistically stepping in where the EU is failing to lead.
14. European leadership in this global crisis ought to be about doubling down on multilateral cooperation in order to address a uniquely global crisis. Failure to do so will hobble the new "geo-strategic" @EU_Commission in its first months of existence.
15. As the Trump administration pushed the nuclear deal into a crisis, Iran patiently bet on European leadership. Now would be a bad time for that bet to be proven the wrong one.
