1/ $TSLA Earnings are almost upon us and once again I’ve run out of time to dig as deeply as I’d like. Here’s my spreadsheet along with some line item comments to follow. 
2/9
Revenue/Car – I carried over the revenue per model from Q4, simply because I ran out of time to research further. Strikingly, the overall rev/car is down $1460 from Q4 due to an erosion of S/X contribution.
Revenue/Car – I carried over the revenue per model from Q4, simply because I ran out of time to research further. Strikingly, the overall rev/car is down $1460 from Q4 due to an erosion of S/X contribution.
3/9
Gross Margin – Here’s where I step out on a limb. I’m estimating automotive GM (ex Reg Credit) to fall from 21% to 15%. Factors driving this: Plant utilization in Fremont, Ramp-up inefficiency in Shanghai, and fewer S/X leases which are booked at an incredibly high GM.
Gross Margin – Here’s where I step out on a limb. I’m estimating automotive GM (ex Reg Credit) to fall from 21% to 15%. Factors driving this: Plant utilization in Fremont, Ramp-up inefficiency in Shanghai, and fewer S/X leases which are booked at an incredibly high GM.
4/9
Cost of Goods Sold – COGS are calculated from the GM assumption.
Regulatory Credit – I have $150M in the spreadsheet based on recent history. However, Tesla has $140M in deferred credit which they will recognize this year, possibly all of it in Q1.
Cost of Goods Sold – COGS are calculated from the GM assumption.
Regulatory Credit – I have $150M in the spreadsheet based on recent history. However, Tesla has $140M in deferred credit which they will recognize this year, possibly all of it in Q1.
5/9
Energy – No change from Q4.
Services and Other – I feel Tesla’s used car business is in big trouble. But they seem to be making changes in the business structure. I don’t know the overall impact, so I’m leaving this line unchanged from Q4 as well.
Energy – No change from Q4.
Services and Other – I feel Tesla’s used car business is in big trouble. But they seem to be making changes in the business structure. I don’t know the overall impact, so I’m leaving this line unchanged from Q4 as well.
6/9
Operating Expenses – This line often carries surprises. I don’t see any event that would change it significantly from last Q. If they’re not paying rent on sales/service properties in Q1, that could be a benefit.
Restructuring – Just a guess.
Operating Expenses – This line often carries surprises. I don’t see any event that would change it significantly from last Q. If they’re not paying rent on sales/service properties in Q1, that could be a benefit.
Restructuring – Just a guess.
7/9
Operating Income – Perhaps the most important number on my spreadsheet. Adding up all of my assumptions, this is down a whopping $560M from Q4. Can that be right? Seems to be.
Operating Income – Perhaps the most important number on my spreadsheet. Adding up all of my assumptions, this is down a whopping $560M from Q4. Can that be right? Seems to be.
8/9
Other – Tesla can report just about anything they want here. We’ve seen massive reversals from one Q to another with no real explanation.
Other – Tesla can report just about anything they want here. We’ve seen massive reversals from one Q to another with no real explanation.
9/9
GAAP Income – And here’s the bottom line. I’m predicting a loss of $400M, assuming no wild cards get played. Assuming the same non-GAAP adjustment as last Q, I have an EPS loss of $0.67 compared to an analyst consensus of $0.23.
GAAP Income – And here’s the bottom line. I’m predicting a loss of $400M, assuming no wild cards get played. Assuming the same non-GAAP adjustment as last Q, I have an EPS loss of $0.67 compared to an analyst consensus of $0.23.
10/9 Final comment – Bill Maurer has been doing a quarterly bear/nominal/bull outlook on SA. Definitely worth a read. seekingalpha.com/article/433912…
