1/ Another month has gone by. It’s time to visit $TSLA ordering trends for Models 3 and Y. The first thing that jumps out at me is the order rate for FSD. I was surprised to see the Apr take rate cut in half compared to Feb/Mar. 2/ Perhaps prospective customers have been underwhelmed by the performance they’ve seen in Beta test videos. Maybe it’ll work better without radar. Periodic price rises of FSD have produced short-term bumps in demand. It may be time to try it again.

1/ $TSLA Why is it that when Elon Musk says something stupid, reporters think he's saying something smart?
finance.yahoo.com/news/elon-musk… 2/ OK, 3 tonnes of thrust from a compressed air tank? That's the equivalent of 6 JATO rocket engines. How many seconds of flight is he expecting? Even if you can elevate for a couple of seconds, what do you do then? Advise people it's safe to remove their earplugs?

1/ For the benefit of everyone on Twitter, I’ve made a New Year’s Resolution to not share my opinions on politics or Covid this year. (So many Twitter drafts deleted already!) So instead of opinion, I’d like to share this anecdote. 2/ Last Friday, I went to my doctor for my annual tune-up. We talk candidly on many subjects, including Tesla. We even took a short excursion to Mars this time. Of course, on topics of medicine I will always defer to his opinion. And he had definite opinions on Covid.

1/ Now that the election has been called and voter fraud dismissed, it’s time to search for other frauds. Let’s look at $TSLA Full Self Drive. About 3 weeks ago, Tesla released its Beta version to a limited audience of Tesla influencers. 2/ The influencers were supposed to flood social media with praise and testimonial videos. Instead, FSD performance was so bad that every video contained errors, many requiring driver intervention.

1/ $TSLA Battery Day will "Blow Your Mind" said Elon Musk. I think the presentation would've been a lot more convincing had they actually shown one of the new 4680 cells. Maybe show what 1 kWh of the new cells looks like compared to 1 kWh of 2170 cells. 2/ The percentage improvements of the various elements seemed rather vague. It would've been nice to have a few hard numbers. Without hard numbers, you can't compare Tesla's technology to anyone else's. I assume that was on purpose.

This is what happens when the design process does not allow time for reading the supplier's application guideline. Failing to design it correctly in the first place, I wonder how much engineering went into this makeshift solution?

https://twitter.com/Jalopnik/status/1303778688383803393

What is that strap wrapped around - will it deform?
Can the condenser stack carry mechanical load through the center like that?
How about the mechanical properties of the foam corner molding? Temperature range?

1/ By now, it must be clear to both bulls and bears that exponential growth is becoming harder and harder to find at . Tesla’s avenue for growth now rests largely in the People’s Republic of China. 2/ Expansion at GF3 in Shanghai has been rapid and decisive. Ahead of schedule, production capacity surpassed 4,000 per week in mid-June. It’s safe to assume that they have Model 3 capacity for 20,000 per month today. tesmanian.com/blogs/tesmania…

1/ 🚨🚨🚨 Shorty Ground Force – 🇬🇧 Edition

I’d like to take a moment to share some Shorty Ground Force info-nuggets from a UK acquaintance who prefers to remain anonymous. 2/ The first EU ship of Q3 is scheduled to arrive in Zeebrugge tomorrow. Sales in July have been uninspiring, as inventories were pretty much drained by the end of June. So by the end of July, surely inventories are down to 0 given Tesla’s insatiable demand. Let’s check in.

1/ A few thought about India.

Although Tesla’s customer deposits declined 10% this quarter, the reservation book still carries an attractive balance. Some of it is pent-up demand for Cybertruck, Semi, and Roadster. 2/ But a chunk of it is for Model 3 reservations in India, where deposits have been accumulating since Apr 2016. Opening up reservations in India was a bold move my Musk, who had no idea when or even if he could deliver.

1/ OK, enough distractions. Let’s get back to business here $TSLA $TSLAQ and look at Q2 earnings. We’re still waiting for some numbers to come in. But let’s see what’s different this Q (rough numbers). 2/
🚗 Shanghai sales up 12000; Fremont down 10,000
🚗 Model Y sales up 12,000; S/X/3 down 10,000
🚗 European sales down 10,000
🚗 North American sales unchanged
🚗 Shanghai production up 12,000; Fremont down 30,000
🚗 Prices lowered 5% in late May on S/X/3
🚗 FSD sales frenzy

1/ As we approach the end of the Q, sales estimates are pouring in. I always like to review sources from outside so that I can challenge my own assumptions. 2/ First we have @GerberKawasaki setting the bar low for a beat. He reminded us that Tesla reminded him that consensus was 70k. No, wait – that was analysts’ consensus. No wait – it’s gone. Never mind.

1/ Hockey Update (not ) – The local rink opened back up a few weeks ago for limited activity. On Wed night, I decided to lace up the skates for the first time in 3 months. It was also the first night that we were allowed to scrimmage. 2/ The “new normal” comes with a few changes. We’re limited to 20 skaters + 2 goalies, so 10 on the ice and 5 on each bench. This was already typical attendance for our pickup group, so no real change there. The bigger difference is the locker room usage and ice scheduling.

1/ What’s the Model 3/Y order book looking like these days? I searched @TroyTeslike’s survey spreadsheets to find some insight. The first thing I looked at was the rate of entries in the spreadsheets. 2/ This of course is not a direct measurement of orders since it relies on self-reported data. Participation rate ebbs and flows. However, when the trend is this strong, you can conclude that new orders are not robust. Model 3 price reductions appear to be helping.

1/ A few reflections from the coffee cup this morning, digesting Tesla’s recent pricing adjustments. There are a few dynamics to consider.
A) Price cuts on S/X/3
B) No price cut on Y
C) Price increase on FSD
D) Tesla is a tech company, not a car company 2/ Tesla has slashed their prices on S/X/3 by about 5%. For an engineer who never progressed beyond Econ 101, this looks like classic repositioning on the price/demand curve.

1/ #SpaceX - In the luck of the draw, North Americans will get a unique chance to see both the Crew Dragon and the ISS pass overhead this evening. There will be three passes over the continent, spaced about 90 minutes apart. The Crew Dragon will be about 8 min ahead of the ISS. 2/ This is the first ground path for the ISS. Start looking for Crew Dragon 10 minutes earlier. It goes directly over Temagami and Boston, but is viewable over a very large area. Times shown along the path are EDT.

1/ For most of us, sheltering in place has been a way of life for the past two months. Finally, bans are being lifted. But life is still far from normal. Realistically, the probability of exposure to COVID-19 is at least an order of magnitude higher now than it was 2 months ago. 2/ I’m not going to debate what the best course of action should have been. There’s plenty of discussion in other threads. I’ll just offer a few reflections about where we go from here. In our lives, there are always elements of danger. Danger can’t be eliminated.

1/ In most quarters, one can make a pretty good estimate of sales by mid-quarter. This quarter is of course going to be a challenge. So instead of looking at sales trends and counting boats, I’m going to start with plant capacity and work backward from there. 2/ When healthy, production capacity at Fremont looks to be right around 105k/qtr. And Shanghai Phase 1 probably another 36k. Call it 140k sustainable per quarter. Of course, Q2 is anything but a healthy quarter for both manufacturing and sales.

Yesterday was one of those perfect spring days. Every single one of my neighbors was out in their yards. Like the others, I had a ton of yard work to do. I had gardens to clear, a lawn to mow, and a brush pile to burn. In the early afternoon, I had an unexpected visitor. Young Bambi, probably only days old, wobbled into the yard. She bedded down in a garden area, about 15 ft from my burning brush pile. I decided to abandon the back yard activities and leave her undisturbed.

1/14 “And I'd point out, I've had a root canal before, and I would agree, Elon. It was less painful than buying a car.” That’s how Adam Jonas described legacy car dealerships at the last $TSLA CC. Musk agreed.

Here’s my own recent buying experience. 2/14 A couple of weeks ago, my daughter found herself in need of a replacement car. Knowing this day would eventually come, we had tentatively planned that she would buy Mrs. Drive’s car. And Mrs. Drive would drive a new one.

Let’s do a quick gross margin rationality check. In Q1, Tesla produced 102,700 cars, down slightly from 104,900 in Q4. But at least 18,000 of these were made in China. That means Fremont production was only about 85,000. And about 3,000 of the 80,000 were Model Y ramp-up.

https://twitter.com/Badger24/status/1255595983720730624

2/ Let’s add it up the realistic GM’s (ex reg credits).
Shanghai Model 3 ramp-up: 18,000 units at 5% GM.
Fremont Model Y ramp-up 3,000 units at 5% GM.
Fremont Model 3/S/X 82,000 units at 19% (2% less than Q4 when running at 104,000 rate).

1/ With the InsideEVs quarterly scorecard still nowhere to be found, CleanTechnica stepped up a couple of weeks ago to publish their own estimate of US Model 3 sales. They had a cutting headline claiming to have outsold Charger and Mustang combined. cleantechnica.com/2020/04/05/tes… 2/ The only problem was that they grossly overstated the number of Model 3 sales. Fortunately, someone was kind enough to point out the discrepancy on Twitter. Some of you may remember:

https://twitter.com/CoverDrive12/status/1250439442390601728