@DFisman @DFisman Respect your knowledge of infectious disease but socially, educationally & psychologically we’re in danger of walking off a cliff. We will need not only medical guidance but courage as strong as anything we’ve faced yet, & perhaps uncommon creativity. 1/x #COVID19Canada
@DFisman We’re not nearly prepared to do education remotely at any level. K-6 families are climbing the walls. Homes aren’t properly set up, equipment isn’t in place, few people are trained and working parents cannot be expected to be educational aides forever. 2/x
@DFisman Grades 7-12 we’re looking at serious deficits in basic knowledge and skills if they don’t go back in September, which means a decision by mid-June at the latest - 6 weeks from now. Ontario had cut its remote course target in half, from 4 to 2, for high school graduation ... 3/x
@DFisman ... after a wave of realism washed over Queen’s Park. It’s fantasy to assume even one term of high school can go on without students’ physical attendance. What’s happening now is a giant kludge - Christmas marks extrapolated into final grades, pass-fails etc. Not extendable. 4/x
@DFisman Post-secondary ed is a bit further down the remote-delivery road. But many programs include vital hands-on components in labs or studios using specialized equipment. Placements and internships depend on off-campus sites being functional. Network-building demands proximity. 5/x
@DFisman Training for trades also requires a functioning economy with an abundance of work sites where apprenticeships can be served. Interpersonal interaction is crucial to personal development at every stage of learning. The cost of deprivation in this regard will rise quickly. 6/x
@DFisman Speaking of interaction, consider the importance in child development of exposure to other children. Imagine the third, fourth or fifth year in a child’s life spent only with siblings - if there are siblings at home. And please don’t tell us FaceTime sessions can substitute. 7/x
@DFisman The blithe notion that we’re currently proving how little physical proximity matters rests on a giant fallacy. Whether we’re middle-schoolers or senior executives, we’re interacting from isolation with people we know. We’ve formed our relationships in one another’s presence. 8/x
@DFisman As we work remotely with more and more people we only know online, will the quality of work and our satisfaction remain static? I doubt it. I foresee dysfunction and unexpected phenomena developing quickly as the unseen human factors underlying complex systems are exposed. 9/x
@DFisman You’ve posited that uncrowded workplaces such as those in office towers would be among the first to resune normal operations. In Toronto this would quickly produce a return to something approaching normal crowding on public transit, raising questions of safety and protocol. 10/x
@DFisman Since current public-health guidelines are based on the assumption that anyone may be infectious, it’s not clear how people should assess the risk posed to them by populated urban environments given their particular state of health. Transit is the important factor here. 11/x
@DFisman Related to such doubts is the effect of prolonged isolation and uncertainty on the burden of psychological distress and mental illness. Anxiety & depression are stoked by pandemic & isolation. Hardship will fall on some folks despite emergency supports, inflaming stressors. 12/x
@DFisman “Underlying conditions” affecting COVID19 disease course are widespread. The co-morbidity most highly correlated with poor outcomes is hypertension. Others include relatively common heart and lung conditions as well as type 2 diabetes. People with these conditions ... 13/x
@DFisman ... as well as those over 60 and/or suffering from chronic illness will find it difficult to decide to venture away from home until authorities can supply useful estimates of population immunity, or until an effective vaccine is available. Many will delay their return ... 14/x
@DFisman ... and the result in some will be loneliness, physical deconditioning and despair. We shouldn’t underestimate the burden this may impose on health-care systems. To prolong isolation measures beyond several more weeks is to court a decline in general well-being. 15/x
@DFisman If epidemiologists believe isolation measures must be extended past midsummer, all the more reason for them to acknowledge the effect this could have on indicators of social & psychological health as well as educational success, and to frame their advice with this in mind. 17/17
@DFisman @threadreaderapp pls unroll tx
