Tomorrow, I'll publish a piece on terrorist #recidivism in CTC Sentinel @CTCWP. What is terrorist recidivism? How to 'measure' it? How likely are terrorists to reoffend?...
Until then, I wanted to highlight some of the work already published on this (Thread)
Until then, I wanted to highlight some of the work already published on this (Thread)
The first person to trigger my curiosity on this topic was the brilliant @AndrewPSilke, notably during one of his presentations. I had also read this article with Tinka Veldhuis in @Perspectives_T, a must-read terrorismanalysts.com/pt/index.php/p…
Andrew triggered my interest, which led to a workshop I organized in early 2019 with CT and CVE professionals. Like often, his remarks that the risk of terrorism recidivism is very low triggered a lot of discussions...this eventually led to my own research project
Recently, there's been a few excellent studies on the topic of terrorist recidivism. Worth highlighting is notably the study by Omi Hodwitz, on recidivists in the US since 2001, also in @Perspectives_T jstor.org/stable/2662686…
Another great study on terrorist recidivism in the US was done by @wrightapsu in CTC Sentinel @CTCWP, based on another dataset than Hodwitz. (I also remember an excellent panel with Chris and Andrew at @SocTerRes in Oslo) ctc.usma.edu/examination-ji…
@marybethaltier @EmmaJLeonard and @Drjohnhorgan have published recently in @terpolv a study on terrorist reengagement, based on autobiographies, which I found extremely stimulating and helped me a lot. Clearly a must-read as well tandfonline.com/doi/abs/10.108…
Liesbeth van der Heide and @BartSchuurman3 have published an amazing evaluation of the Dutch disengagement programme in @JD_JournalDerad, which includes figures and reflections on recidivism journals.sfu.ca/jd/index.php/j…
There's been some excellent research published on this, but overall surprisingly little nonetheless. As I will explain in my article, we need more research to drive evidence-based policies. And to understand why most terrorists "do not return to the fight". Watch this space.
