India moved very early to lockdown, even though Covid-19 numbers were low.
While this may have helped reduce transmission, it made the decision to emerge from a lockdown much harder, because India has no sense of when its peak will be. scroll.in/article/959016…
The "early" lockdown gave states and Centre a disincentive to open up, despite the cost to the economy scroll.in/article/959016…
For India, estimating that peak is much harder, so it was always going to be the case that numbers would still be growing even 5 weeks into lockdown: scroll.in/article/959016…
It now has nearly 30,000 new cases and 934 deaths, and though there are positive signs from many states flattening the curve, the peak is still hard to predict. scroll.in/latest/960405/…
Now states would rather be shut, as numbers are spiking. From yesterday: indianexpress.com/article/india/…
The Centre is telling the public that lockdown has been super effective.
But it's telling states that the number could be apocalyptic.
scroll.in/article/960403…
More than a month into the world’s largest lockdown, India is failing to see an easing of new cases." bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
India, however, has just seen a steady rise... indiatoday.in/diu/story/coro…
The peak is expected sometime towards the end of June or in July. scroll.in/article/961296…
indianexpress.com/article/india/…
Because nearly 6 weeks after an "early" lockdown, it can't afford to be shut for much longer.
Was there enough prep in the interim?
scroll.in/article/961296…