Thread:
India moved very early to lockdown, even though Covid-19 numbers were low.
While this may have helped reduce transmission, it made the decision to emerge from a lockdown much harder, because India has no sense of when its peak will be. scroll.in/article/959016…
India moved very early to lockdown, even though Covid-19 numbers were low.
While this may have helped reduce transmission, it made the decision to emerge from a lockdown much harder, because India has no sense of when its peak will be. scroll.in/article/959016…
We wrote about this two weeks ago on the Political Fix, my weekly newsletter on Indian politics and policy (subscribe here: thepoliticalfix.substack.com).
The "early" lockdown gave states and Centre a disincentive to open up, despite the cost to the economy scroll.in/article/959016…
The "early" lockdown gave states and Centre a disincentive to open up, despite the cost to the economy scroll.in/article/959016…
Many other countries moved towards an exit plan after new case numbers had "peaked".
For India, estimating that peak is much harder, so it was always going to be the case that numbers would still be growing even 5 weeks into lockdown: scroll.in/article/959016…
For India, estimating that peak is much harder, so it was always going to be the case that numbers would still be growing even 5 weeks into lockdown: scroll.in/article/959016…
For context, when India went into a stringent lockdown it had only 500 cases and 10 deaths.
It now has nearly 30,000 new cases and 934 deaths, and though there are positive signs from many states flattening the curve, the peak is still hard to predict. scroll.in/latest/960405/…
It now has nearly 30,000 new cases and 934 deaths, and though there are positive signs from many states flattening the curve, the peak is still hard to predict. scroll.in/latest/960405/…
Though normal incentives (as you can see from the US president or UK's early moves) should push politicians to be *against* lockdown, an "early" lockdown inverts the policy inertia.
Now states would rather be shut, as numbers are spiking. From yesterday: indianexpress.com/article/india/…
Now states would rather be shut, as numbers are spiking. From yesterday: indianexpress.com/article/india/…
What makes things even more complicated, as @ShoaibDaniyal is mixed messaging:
The Centre is telling the public that lockdown has been super effective.
But it's telling states that the number could be apocalyptic.
scroll.in/article/960403…
The Centre is telling the public that lockdown has been super effective.
But it's telling states that the number could be apocalyptic.
scroll.in/article/960403…
"Italy and Spain saw the daily count of new cases peak around the 13th day of their lockdowns, and started trending downward from there.
More than a month into the world’s largest lockdown, India is failing to see an easing of new cases." bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
More than a month into the world’s largest lockdown, India is failing to see an easing of new cases." bloombergquint.com/coronavirus-ou…
This graph shows you how other countries saw cases spike and then start to drop after locking down.
India, however, has just seen a steady rise... indiatoday.in/diu/story/coro…
India, however, has just seen a steady rise... indiatoday.in/diu/story/coro…
As I wrote yesterday, one consequence of India's early lockdown is that the country is now going to open up, despite not seeing a downward dip in new cases.
The peak is expected sometime towards the end of June or in July. scroll.in/article/961296…
The peak is expected sometime towards the end of June or in July. scroll.in/article/961296…
"Though Covid-19 cases are doubling at a faster pace into the first week of the third phase of the lockdown, the general sentiment in the government appears to be against rolling back the relaxations towards a gradual un-lockdown."
indianexpress.com/article/india/…
indianexpress.com/article/india/…
Put differently, why is India relaxing its lockdown even as Covid-19 continues to spread further around the country?
Because nearly 6 weeks after an "early" lockdown, it can't afford to be shut for much longer.
Was there enough prep in the interim?
scroll.in/article/961296…
Because nearly 6 weeks after an "early" lockdown, it can't afford to be shut for much longer.
Was there enough prep in the interim?
scroll.in/article/961296…
For context, see also the shifting goalposts of what the aim of the lockdown was, with the government finally admitting yesterday that we'll have to learn to live with the virus:
