James, you make multiple errors and have faulty assumptions. I'll highlight them, not to "dunk on you," since you're my friend, but in hopes that we can think more clearly about this matter. (I'll accept your first set of numbers.)
Testing is not like a political opinion poll. The people who get tested are already expressing symptoms (fever and cough). So what we can say is that, of a sample of half a million people who seem likely to be infected, 28% are, indeed, infected by Coronavirus.
You're assuming that, since 28% of this not-at-all-random sample is infected, 28% of the population at large is infected. That is not sound reasoning. A much small percentage of the population is likely infected.
Of those confirmed to be infected with Covid-19, 13% have died *as of today*. That is a very high fatality rate! The flu fatality rate is much lower (around .01%). So clearly, we are dealing with something extremely lethal.
You should also not assume that the deaths will simply halt at 20,000. This is a dynamic process.
You calculate a "national death ratio" based on the number of dead *right now* divided by 28% of the population. In other words, you take a snapshot of the data and divide by a faulty assumption and conclude that Covid-19 is not dangerous. That is not sound reasoning.
My general advice: stop watching Fox News, James!
*0.1% for the flu (not 0.01%)
