Thread by @MichaelAodhan

1. 🚨THREAD🚨👇👇 Brexit might seem like a distant memory but its still going. Today along with @CBINI @UFUHQ I will be giving evidence to the @CommonsNIAC on the NI Protocol & if there will be Unfettered Access. TL;DR there won't parliamentlive.tv/Event/Index/66… So what will I be saying?

2. 1stly retail and consumers in NI don't have room to absorb higher costs if there is friction. Retail is a high vol low profit margin industry c2% for some major retailers so no wiggle room. NI households have half of the discretionary income of GB so they can't absorb rises

3. The first iteration of the NI Protocol had very little friction between NI and GB and vice versa. Now there are new regulatory, jurisdictional and enforcement issues to the free flow of goods including different customs arrangement and remember friction = cost

4. De Jure Northern Ireland remains part of the United Kingdom Customs Union but de facto Northern Ireland will be in a single SPS zone with the EU and will be administering the EU Customs Code so there is going to have to be checks and remember checks = delays and costs

5. Unless goods can show that they are not at risk then there will be the presumption that they are at risk. The EU priority will be to protect the customs Union and the single market. For them this is not just about Brexit & the UK but every other border they have too

6.There's been talk of possible waivers & facilitations and of a “Special 3rd country status…….” . But that won’t happen. There is no Hail Mary pass or gentlemens agreement. This all has to be pinned down in legislation and treaty. We need an FTA & agreements. A legal framework

7. The Joint Comm - There is a difference in Perception. EU thinks that it is about the implementation of the laws that are explicit within the WA & UK think it is about negotiation & mitigation. That means friction from day one.

8. Joint Comm has to talk to biz it & give an evidentiary threshold of how it will judge what is it and what’s not at risk. It needs to make decisions on 100ks products. All guidance/procedures need to be issued the biz & business needs time to implement. Time we don't have!

9. V. IMP!!! t’s not for business to interpret the legislation. Needs to be clear and unequivocal guidance from the UK govt & Northern Ireland Exec. We also NEED to see a UK draught plan on the custom checks between NI & GB to allow us to prepare properly

10. Some talk about fixing 1 part and think the whole of the friction is fixed. That's not right. This is a jigsaw of friction pieces that need sorted, SPS, customs, VAT, security & Safety, transit, all need sorted if we are to give the NI public the same choice and affordability

11. Mitigations might help with some of the friction but we need clarity on what these might be and time to implement them. It will be a herculean, if not impossible, task to get all that is needed up and running by 1 Jan 21. And still there will be cost rises.

12. From UK we need:
• Reconstitution of the Alter Argments Working Group to look at NI-GB-NI trade.
• Biz needs access to Joint Comm to explain challenges & support needed
• An economic impact assessment UKG on the effects of the protocol on NI business & NI households.

13. Added to the pressure of leaving the EU on 1 Jan we also have the Corona virus to deal with which is already having a devastating effect. It has proved that Just In Time Supply chains when they work are great but delays or problems can have huge knock on effects.

14. The biggest problem is the uncertainty 8 months out from the end of transition. We need detail, answers & time to prepare.
What IS certain:
If the costs rises are more than profit margin = either the product or the business model becomes unviable.

Watch at 2:30pm /ENDS