Thread by @NeilShenvi

Quick thread on #COVID19 mortality rates inspired by a comment from Dr. @CT_Bergstrom.

Official COVID deaths in NYC are 12,774 out of a population of 8.4M. That means that 0.15% ***of all New Yorkers*** have died of coronavirus in the last two months. 1/

That places a lower bound on the COVID fatality rate in NYC. Even if 100% of New Yorkers have been infected, the fatality rate must be at least 0.15% (but is probably higher).

But can we trust the number of reported deaths? What if they're over-reported? 2/

Here's some data on excess deaths from New York City. There are around 20,000 more deaths than normal since March. Either
1) #COVID19 *and* something else is causing these deaths
or
2) #COVID19 deaths are undercounted

3/

We see the spike in excess deaths across the U.S. as a whole. Now, I agree that there are complicating factors. We're probably going to see an *increase* in "deaths of despair" due to the lockdown (suicide, alcohol, etc.) and a *decrease* in other 4/

https://twitter.com/_cingraham/status/1254792999080349697

causes of death (car accidents, work-related accidents, etc.). But I think we can be pretty confident 0.15% is a hard lower bound for the COVID19 fatality rate in NYC and that the reality is much higher. 5/5