My Authors
Read all threads
Quick thread on #COVID19 mortality rates inspired by a comment from Dr. @CT_Bergstrom.

Official COVID deaths in NYC are 12,774 out of a population of 8.4M. That means that 0.15% ***of all New Yorkers*** have died of coronavirus in the last two months. 1/
That places a lower bound on the COVID fatality rate in NYC. Even if 100% of New Yorkers have been infected, the fatality rate must be at least 0.15% (but is probably higher).

But can we trust the number of reported deaths? What if they're over-reported? 2/
Here's some data on excess deaths from New York City. There are around 20,000 more deaths than normal since March. Either
1) #COVID19 *and* something else is causing these deaths
or
2) #COVID19 deaths are undercounted

3/
We see the spike in excess deaths across the U.S. as a whole. Now, I agree that there are complicating factors. We're probably going to see an *increase* in "deaths of despair" due to the lockdown (suicide, alcohol, etc.) and a *decrease* in other 4/

causes of death (car accidents, work-related accidents, etc.). But I think we can be pretty confident 0.15% is a hard lower bound for the COVID19 fatality rate in NYC and that the reality is much higher. 5/5
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Neil Shenvi

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!