My Authors
Read all threads
I know all the discussion is about a possible "2nd wave", but I've found this odd given that we haven't finished the first one. I would think quite possible that, nationally, we're in for a scenario of a long plateau. 1/10
If we look at confirmed cases through time in the US, we see a plateau of ~30k confirmed cases per day for basically the entire month of April. This corresponds to a decrease of the effective reproduction number to ~1. Figure from @cmmid_lshtm's 2/10
As stated before, it's clear that social distancing has had a large impact on transmission (). However, this effect has been shy of suppression nationally and hence the plateau in cases rather than a consistent decrease. 3/10
This plateau at a national level is the result of some states with rising case counts (and Rt greater than 1) and other states with falling case counts (and Rt less than 1). 4/10
As we move forward into summer, transmission rate will be affected by:
1. efforts to get society and the economy moving again
2. better knowledge and hygiene practices
3. possible impact of seasonality
In terms of seasonality, there is increasing evidence of the importance to transmission of indoor spaces where people spend lots of time (…,…). Summer should improve this. 6/10
However, given that Rt nationally is at the moment ~1, I don't see why we expect large declines in daily case counts over the next month, given that behavior has been pretty static, or perhaps rising. Figure from…. 7/10
I would suspect that the dynamic we're looking at is local policy decisions / people's changing behavior as risk is perceived to decrease resulting in increasing local case counts and then a cycle of increased social distancing to compensate. 8/10
There may well be cities / counties that achieve suppression locally, but nationally I expect things be messy with flare-ups in various geographies followed by responses to these flare-ups. 9/10
If we continue at our current pace of perhaps ~300k infections per day (). The US would have very roughly 50M cumulative infections by September 1 and be at ~15% population immunity. 10/10
I'd be happy to wrong here and start to see a week-over-week decline. I just don't know what gets us there if we're not there already.
An important subtlety I missed in the original thread: Tests per day almost doubled from ~120k to ~200k over the course of April while confirmed cases remained roughly flat at ~30k per day. Does suggest some decrease in number of infections, though probably less than than 1.6X.
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh.

Enjoying this thread?

Keep Current with Trevor Bedford

Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

Twitter may remove this content at anytime, convert it as a PDF, save and print for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video

1) Follow Thread Reader App on Twitter so you can easily mention us!

2) Go to a Twitter thread (series of Tweets by the same owner) and mention us with a keyword "unroll" @threadreaderapp unroll

You can practice here first or read more on our help page!

Follow Us on Twitter!

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!

This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3.00/month or $30.00/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!