Thread by @cdutilhnovaes

THREAD on 'following the experts'
1/ @NewYorker piece w detailed discussion of the differences btw how Seattle and NYC each reacted to covid19. Seattle followed advice of experts, whereas in NYC politicians, esp. @NYCMayor made a complete mess of things.
newyorker.com/magazine/2020/…

2/ However, 'following the experts' is not a foulproof method either, as we know from the disastrous response to covid19 in the UK, meticulously documented in @guardian. Following the 'wrong' experts, or too few of them, can lead to disaster...
theguardian.com/world/2020/apr…

3/... especially when there is so much we don't know yet & scientific consensus has not emerged (unlike climate change). The same thing happens here in NL, where the advice of OMT has been described as 'too narrow' (eenzijdig) bij former @rivm director.
nos.nl/nieuwsuur/arti…

4/ Instead, what we need is *triangulation*, that is combining info from different sources/methodologies, as described by @devisridhar: "Modelling is a necessary input to public policy decisions but should be taken as just one input among many... bmj.com/content/369/bm…

5/...one piece of a large puzzle. Other equally valuable sources of information include case study analysis from other countries, talking to frontline health staff and patient groups, and policy documents and historical analyses of previous novel outbreaks."

6/ Scientific progress depends crucially on *dissent*, on bringing together different views, perspectives, methods. Aggregating conflicting info is not easy, but this does not mean that politicians should not consult a wide range of specialists.

https://twitter.com/cdutilhnovaes/status/1251795803741523968

7/ Instead, what happens time and again is that politicians cherry-pick their 'experts' & tend to favor the evidence that supports their own vision. With so much uncertainty, science & politics are now even more intertwined than usually.
theguardian.com/commentisfree/…

8/ But what explains the Seattle success then? My guess is that advice from experts with training at the Epidemic Intelligence Service (E.I.S.) made all the difference, people with specific expertise in highly unusual situations.

9/ "“That’s why E.I.S. training is so important,” Sonja Rasmussen, a former C.D.C. official, told me. In a pandemic, “the old ways of thinking get flipped around.” She added, “You have to make the kinds of choices that, if you aren’t trained for them, are really hard to make.”"

10/ The mindset switch needed is described here by @DrMikeRyan, executive director of @WHO Health Emergencies Programme.

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1238504143104421888

11/ To conclude, @devisridhar: "Another good principle is one of humility. No discipline has all the answers & the only way to avoid “groupthink” and blind spots is to ensure representatives with diverse backgrounds and expertise are at the table when major decisions are made."

Tagging some other experts from whom I've learned a lot the past weeks for #FF (it's Friday after all!): @bslagter @Ammer_B @bosmana @koryoinleiden @AlexWFriedrich1 @Tamer_Nawar @trishgreenhalgh @DrDenaGrayson @NAChristakis @Jopdevrieze @CatherineDVries