Thread by @ClimateBen

Did you know?

1. Even moderate emissions cuts risk horrific death and destruction at 2C by 2035 (and that's ignoring very real methane, permafrost & vegetation feedbacks), then billions dead between 3C and 4C by 2045 - 2060.

2. The next IPCC assessment still won't include this.

'It is important to note that the range of carbon-cycle feedback estimates considered here may still be conservative, as many of these carbon-cycle models lack a number of feedbacks'

The intermediate RCP6.0 emissions scenario could see warming of up to 5C'carbonbrief.org/analysis-how-c…

UK Met Office and World Bank projections of utterly catastrophic 4C by 2060 (from 2009 & 2012) are more valid than ever, but, now even significant emissions reductions may not be enough.

Feedbacks still not captured by climate models mean risks are huge.climatecentral.org/news/co2-hits-…

Risks of rapid runaway carbon releases:

'the international effort to develop the new models is running “a year behind schedule,” and many of them will miss the deadline for being included as new research findings in the assessment, which is this October.'e360.yale.edu/features/why-c…

We're currently at 1.3C (1750 baseline).

To predict 1.6C by 2030 is reasonable.

We risk 1.8C - 2C by 2028 — 2034:

1.
pnas.org/content/115/52…

2.
inhabitat.com/alarming-study…

3.
counterpunch.org/2016/06/17/epi…
&
ncei.noaa.gov/news/arctic-ic…
&
forbes.com/sites/jeffmcma…

4.
sciencealert.com/if-warming-exc…