Thread by @MLiebreich

Covid-19 hit the world’s urban transportation systems like a heart attack. As lockdowns are eased, the risk is that they will suffer the equivalent of debilitating chronic heart disease - with low demand but even lower capacity. My latest, with @SamRyan17. liebreich.com/liebreich-publ…

This virus is not going to miraculously disappear; it is here until we have a safe vaccine or until we stamp it out the old-fashioned way with social distancing, testing, tracing and quarantine. 2/n

Transport demand is going to stay low. Discretionary travel will be discouraged; home-working will remain ubiquitous, business travel will be almost non-existent. Consumption is not going to come roaring back, it is going to limp along. 3/n

Lower overall demand looks like it will be exacerbated by a dramatic mode shift away from mass transit. Data on China shows private car use surging to a 66% share, from 34% pre-COVID, with public transport seeing an almost identical decrease. 4/n dropbox.com/s/nkwqipmwf2eo…

Lower demand & mode shift away from public transport may not be transit oprtators' biggest problems: they are going to have a massive capacity problem. If you maintain strict social distancing of 2m between passengers on board buses and trains, you run at 15% to 20% capacity. 5/n

As lockdowns ease, cities around the world could be facing congestion, gridlock, pollution, emissions and soaring demand for parking. The ability of the global economy to bounce back from the Covid-19 lockdown could be severely compromised by a lack of transit capacity. 6/n

There are three things that could help avoid this dystopia. First, mayors, municipalities and transportation agencies must act immediately to rebuild trust in mass transit, so that people feel safe using it even before the virus has disappeared. 7/n
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Second, they must promote active travel and micro-mobility, not as a nice-to-have for sustainability or health reasons, but as a public priority in order to keep cities moving and to enable robust economic activity. 8/n
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Third, they need to find creative ways to increase capacity, especially during rush hours, using their fleets and calling on private leisure and business transport providers idled by the impact of Covid-19 on the travel and hospitality industry. 9/n
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Plug time! I chair @GoZeelo, whose business before #Covid19 was getting employees out of cars into commuter shuttles. With its technology in place and a network of vetted coach providers, Zeelo stands ready to help transport authorities expand rush hour capacity. Call them! 10/n

Uber, Via, Moia & others have the ability to add dynamic bus and minibus services very quickly, reducing the pressure on public transport. Driverless shuttle providers like Navya and EasyMile could provide safe services on campuses, business parks and shopping centres. 11/n

Long term, when the Covid-19 pandemic eventually passes, life will return to normal. Not the old normal, but one in which the public can again go about its life without fear of catching a deadly disease. But the integration of these smart mobility solutions will remain. 12/n

Some of the #Covid19-era behaviour changes are likely to be sticky (homeworking, video-conferencing, etc). Nevertheless, the likelihood is that within a few years of the final Covid-19 case, transport demand will have bounced back to the levels of 2019 and beyond. 13/n

Transit authority budgets will remain under far too much pressure to respond to the bounce-back by adding capacity in the traditional way, building infrastructure and adding services. We are likely to see a decade or more of rationalised operations and shelved investments. 14/n

Mass transit’s peak-time capacity problem is here to stay. Until #Covid19, the blurring of boundaries between public and private transport & integration of smart mobility into daily commutes, was the stuff of specialist transport and planning blogs. That is about to change. 15/n

When historians look back on the current era, the end of the post-war public transport paradigm will not be seen as the arrival of Uber, but the 2020 Covid-19 pandemic.  16/16

Read the full piece, written with @SamRyan17 CEO of @GoZeelo, and please share:
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