1/ Covid (@UCSF) Chronicles, Day 45
Bit of an uptick @UCSFHospitals: 17 pts in hospital (up 4), 4 on vent (down 1) (Fig on L). In SF: 1523 cases (up 24), 28 deaths (up 3) (Fig R). As I’ll discuss later, these # s trace out a plateau, not the steady improvements of a few wks ago.
Bit of an uptick @UCSFHospitals: 17 pts in hospital (up 4), 4 on vent (down 1) (Fig on L). In SF: 1523 cases (up 24), 28 deaths (up 3) (Fig R). As I’ll discuss later, these # s trace out a plateau, not the steady improvements of a few wks ago.
2/ Welcome to May, likely to be a turning point in our Covid saga. It’s clear that our tolerance for strict lockdown is flagging and the economic consequences are mounting. So fasten your seatbelts as we embark on 50 (or more) natural experiments in various ways of opening up.
3/ Here’s my thinking: Decision-making in March/April was brutally hard but utterly simple: Lockdown for all but essential businesses (e.g. urgent healthcare & grocery stores)*
*Exception: states w/ strong libertarian leanings that hadn’t yet suffered a big uptick in Covid.
*Exception: states w/ strong libertarian leanings that hadn’t yet suffered a big uptick in Covid.
4/ In May, life gets easier but the decision-making becomes massively more complex. The factors that will influence opening up policies – and personal decision-making – won’t quite fit on a tweet anymore; I’ve tried to map them out below. You may have a few more of your own.
5/ The urge to open is understandable, but reality remains problematic. Most experts see a falling case-rate as an essential condition for big reopening. But, as per @fredhutch’s Trevor Bedford @trvrb, we’re mostly not there. Rather, he too sees a plateau bit.ly/2zRyXml
6/ Even in mostly-spared SF, plateaued on several # s: cases, hospitalizations, deaths, test-positive rate (below). One mark of our on-the-bubble-ness: 3d ago Bay Area mayors extended stay-home orders till 5/31; 2 days later relaxed them in several areas: bit.ly/2KRpQUY
7/ Amazing to see more on-line dataviz tools to help understand the pandemic. Two great new ones show impact of policy changes on cases/deaths: 1) Covid-19 Simulator: bit.ly/3f6VF9X @MassGeneralNews (Fig on L), & 2) COVIDVIS bit.ly/3f6Xwvr @UCBerkeley (Fig R).
8/ Note that in many re-opening plans, outdoor stuff (construction, golf) favored over inside, which is logical. Combo of breeze/no walls/sun lowers risk of transmission (vs. closed indoor space). Think about path of exhaled smoke in indoor space vs. outside & you get the idea.
9/ Another good reason to go outside: UK’s health agency (@PHE_uk) is now advising people to take Vitamin D supplements, since most Brits are not getting enough sun bit.ly/2YalGzn @Independent
10/ And so May begins “the dance” (@tomaspueyo): open a bit→see what happens→either open more or tighten. All hinges on tracking spread, which depends on testing & contact tracing. If we wait for symptoms to spot surge, we’re way behind. If we wait for hospitalizations: worse.
11/ Nice @nytimes op-ed by @peterbachmd & Kent Sepkowitz on why this iterative, one step forward/back, is likely to be our path to progress in Covid nyti.ms/2Yq3cuw This’ll be true as we learn from experiences in (gingerly) opening up, and in all else. Some quotes below.
12/ I’ll sign off w/ new episode in @MrAndrewCotter’s commentary on Olive vs Mabel bit.ly/2Yqe4J8. Not as sidesplitting as 2 prior contests (eating: bit.ly/2RtUcjY & bone: bit.ly/2VBoZwt), but still fun way to start a weekend.
Stay safe, back Monday.
Stay safe, back Monday.
