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For anyone wanting a deep dive into what has happened - and what is going to happen - and the extraordinary balancing act over a new normal the authorities now face re risk of second spike, and the precedents of pandemics past - this is well worth listening to in full:...
In addition for those interested in the mathematics behind R0 and the curves - this is brilliant: @RobinNThompson
And then have a look at this thread and this post from influential Fields Medal winner Tim Gowers on “adaptive triggering” and his scepticism on the time it will take to get to any type of herd immunity...

gowers.wordpress.com/2020/03/28/how…

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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
NEW: Chancellor now answering urgent question on furlough scheme...

Extension till October at 80%

7.5 million now furloughed.

Reports of its demise somewhat exaggerated, as I suggested all of last week.

Same till July, then extra flexibility, including part time.
There was no way Govt were going to scrap scheme which Bank of England Governor has just said was the single most important underpinning of a possible rapid bounceback in the economy...
Chancellor says the use of the word “addicted” which was briefed to papers early last week amid speculation scheme would shut, was not his or his departments - looked pretty annoyed at that, but a senior source in Govt who did brief that looking quite silly.
Read 8 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
Non-announcement of start of quarantine, and then subsequent exemption of France in joint statement from quarantine that wasn’t announced v curious. Worth remembering in late March there was a similar conversation where France was set to close border...
Earlier in the month France exempted UK from its quarantine...
In general terms these discussions on quarantine will become very difficult health, economic, and diplomatic balancing acts... logically it will be countries where virus is under control and tracked, who will apply them to areas where it is not. Interesting dilemmas re, eg US.
Read 3 tweets
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Faisal Islam
@faisalislam
PM’s speech:

Little changed. The core decision, is that lockdown remains, PM is prioritising public health over quick reopening of economy.

But he’s also trying to get business/ workers to use discretion in existing non-watertight lockdown, to maximise econ reopening... /1
Ie... he again warned of the “madness” of risking a second peak of the virus, and said this “sketch of a plan” was being driven by science and health, not by “economic necessity”...
In saying that workers should by default, go back to work, rather than “stay at home” that is a “change of emphasis” as he puts it - but possibly more relevant for scaling down of furlough scheme...
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