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NEW: Chancellor now answering urgent question on furlough scheme...

Extension till October at 80%

7.5 million now furloughed.

Reports of its demise somewhat exaggerated, as I suggested all of last week.

Same till July, then extra flexibility, including part time.
There was no way Govt were going to scrap scheme which Bank of England Governor has just said was the single most important underpinning of a possible rapid bounceback in the economy...
Chancellor says the use of the word “addicted” which was briefed to papers early last week amid speculation scheme would shut, was not his or his departments - looked pretty annoyed at that, but a senior source in Govt who did brief that looking quite silly.
That’s tens of billions extra in support - potential extra £40bn in spending, depending on detail, but Treasury would hope that the numbers required to be on it fully would go down considerably, and many users would be part-subsidised, so average payment lower...
Pointed out last week, that some Conservative thinkers who believe that a variant of the furlough scheme could become permanent feature, alternative to welfare, as in Germany, where many see Kurzarbeit as tacit export subsidy that protects good jobs... bbc.co.uk/news/business-…
I suppose there is a question though about what is “not sustainable” here...

Also clear that furlough scheme will now be used extensively for leisure/ hospitality over summer holiday season...
*** So employers “sharing” contribution means that employees still guaranteed at least 80% of wage as condition of scheme, but employers after the end of July, will not get 80%, and substitute some of that taxpayer subsidy... details later in the month.
Latest furlough figures are 7.5 million jobs covered, costing £10.1 billion.

So that is 27% of all jobs, wages paid by the taxpayer - possibly for 8 months.
* at 80% refers to minimum paid to employees. Taxpayer subsidy from August, after further 1 month extension, will be less than 80%, currently unspecified. But scheme will apply to part time workers, won’t require entire jobs to be furloughed.
All this does make the last few days calibration of the message, ie removal of “stay home” / “should go to work” all the more curious.

biggest incentive Govt had to nudge return to work was paying 1/4 all wages, and that remains in full for all recipients for further full month
Ie you should go to work if you can’t work from home, but ultimately we will continue for another month to subsidise your boss to pay most of your wages, on condition you stay at home and don’t work...
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