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Some thoughts on Brexit and Covid19...

I think Johnson knew by the penultimate week of January that Covid19 could kill +500K UK citizens.

I think he knew coronavirus would trigger an economic crisis - a "panic and a desire for market segregation" - of historic proportions.
I think he chose not to acknowledge the seriousness back in January because the logical corollary of such an admission would be to pause Brexit. So he minimised Covid and prepared to sacrifice +500K Brits. For Brexit.

Then he ignored every call to lock down...
… until Friday 20th March; announcing the Lockdown would start on 23rd. The announcement came after a phone call with Emmanuel Macron, who threatened to close the France / UK border if Johnson did not act.

I think this persuaded Johnson, where countless scientists failed...
… because he realised that a closure of the UK/ France border (followed almost certainly by other EU members) would give UK citizens a preview of what awaits when transition ends without a trade deal. The pressure to extend would become irresistible. He prefers a fait acompli.
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