This pollster typically has a slight house effect for Dems, so the presidential and Senate races probably aren't *that* close. However, the trendline is what matters here...Ernst's lead has shrunk considerably since their last poll.
Iowa is a challenging state for Democrats.
It's one of the most rural swing states, but that's not the whole reason Dems have struggled there. The state has plenty of growing suburbs that in theory should blunt the rightward drift of the rurals.
It's one of the most rural swing states, but that's not the whole reason Dems have struggled there. The state has plenty of growing suburbs that in theory should blunt the rightward drift of the rurals.
The main problem for Dems in Iowa is bad timing coupled with incumbency bias.
Iowa has among the strongest incumbency bias of any state — voters like to keep incumbents, both Democratic and Republican. That's why its partisan voting index varies a lot more than, say, Florida.
Iowa has among the strongest incumbency bias of any state — voters like to keep incumbents, both Democratic and Republican. That's why its partisan voting index varies a lot more than, say, Florida.
But unfortunately for Dems, over the last decade, nearly all of Iowa's major statewide vacancies fell in red wave years, and nearly all blue wave years, fell as the GOP defended incumbents.
This means Republicans have won Iowa a lot more than raw partisanship would predict.
This means Republicans have won Iowa a lot more than raw partisanship would predict.
I don't think Iowa is hopeless for Dems this cycle. Trump's approval fell further there since 2016 than in any other state, largely due to the tariffs.
But it'll be one of the harder states to win back, at least until the national environment and incumbency lines up just right.
But it'll be one of the harder states to win back, at least until the national environment and incumbency lines up just right.
