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Mitch McConnell.

He's seen as this master of the Senate who can do whatever he wants, but he actually sucks at whipping votes. The truth is, the Senate is designed to let any one member shut down debate, and it just so happens his entire agenda involves shutting down debate.
Even what McConnell called his "proudest moment" — denying Merrick Garland a hearing — didn't take a great deal of tactical Senate skill.
On the rare occasions McConnell has had to whip votes to affirmatively pass something, he's pretty poor at it.

Remember McCain's thumbs-down? Majority leaders never call a floor vote they're going to lose. McConnell not knowing he didn't have the votes was stunning incompetence.
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Matthew Chapman
@fawfulfan
This pollster typically has a slight house effect for Dems, so the presidential and Senate races probably aren't *that* close. However, the trendline is what matters here...Ernst's lead has shrunk considerably since their last poll.
Iowa is a challenging state for Democrats.

It's one of the most rural swing states, but that's not the whole reason Dems have struggled there. The state has plenty of growing suburbs that in theory should blunt the rightward drift of the rurals.
The main problem for Dems in Iowa is bad timing coupled with incumbency bias.

Iowa has among the strongest incumbency bias of any state — voters like to keep incumbents, both Democratic and Republican. That's why its partisan voting index varies a lot more than, say, Florida.
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Matthew Chapman
@fawfulfan
I've had to watch Fox many times, as part of my newswriting work.

What makes Fox so effective is that it's a nonstop barrage designed to make you feel angry, and scared. Psychological studies have shown that just being angry and scared makes you more open to conservative ideas.
There have been experiments where people were shown upsetting images or words, and then were asked to answer political questions or rate their personal beliefs, and people put into an angry or scared or disgusted state were noticeably more likely to give conservative answers.
There are also studies that suggest GOP voters have larger amygdalae (the portions of the brain that process fear or aggression responses.)

It's unclear whether the beliefs cause the neurological changes, or vice versa, or both.

What is certain: Fox works on fear.
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Matthew Chapman
@fawfulfan
What I loved about @HeidiHeitkamp was, the more obvious it became she was doomed, the harder she worked for her constituents, day after day talking about everything she was doing for rural communities, tribes. She kept fighting for Savanna's Act in the two months after she lost.
At that point, she could have easily said fuck you, y'all don't want me, I'm outta here. But she stayed and fought for the North Dakotans who had rejected her. Because she truly loved her state and wanted to make all the difference she could.
Just try to imagine, if Trump loses to Biden, what he will do with his last two months in office. He doesn't even do his job now. Imagine how checked out he would be then. It'll make a stark contrast.
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