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Will delete the above tweet because it is an old photo. (h/t @FranMatiasBueno) 13/
Photo of the LNA An-32 that was purportedly destroyed by Turkish TB2 UCAVs in Libya on April 5. 14/
A UN report assesses that the total number of Russian PMC contractors in Libya "to be no more than 800 to 1,200." The report lists details of 122 Wagner contractors who likely fought in Libya including 39 from sniper units and 83 from combat units. 15/
reuters.com/article/us-lib…
The reports said that Wagner PMC contractors have been in Libya since October 2018, and "Wagner has been providing technical support for the repair of military vehicles, participating in combat operations and engaging in influence operations," 16/
themoscowtimes.com/2020/05/07/rus…
They are also involved in "more specialized military tasks such as acting as artillery Forward Observation Officers and Forward Air Controllers, providing electronic countermeasures expertise and deploying as sniper teams," 17/
18/
19/
Presumably, another photo of that same UAE Pantsir-S1 supporting the LNA in Libya. 20/
t.me/new_militaryco…
21/
The Clash Report, which is clearly affiliated with the Turkish government and went dormant in March, is back posting Turkish TB2 UCAV air strike footage now from Libya. The fighting in Libya is increasingly looking like Idlib in Feb-March. 22/
t.me/ClashReport/153
The Clash Report account released another video taken by a Turkish TB2 UCAV showing an LNA MLRS being destroyed in southern Tripoli, Libya. 23/
t.me/ClashReport/163
That new UN report on Libya said that a group of 20 Western mercenaries from the Dubai-based Lancaster 6 DMCC and Opus Capital Asset Limited FZE companies deployed to Libya in June 2019 to support Haftar's advance on Tripoli before leaving abruptly. 24/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
According to 2 diplomats, "Opus and Lancaster 6 financed and directed an operation to provide Haftar's forces with helicopters, drones and cyber capabilities." Lancaster 6 is led by Australian Christiaan Durrant who preivously worked for Erik Prince's Frontier Services Group. 25/
The report said that 6 military helicopters were acquired and sent to Libya, and the operation's plan included a targeting cell, a UAV team, and an attack helicopter. Most of the 21 contractors were British, American, French, Australian, and South African. 26/
27/
The LNA’s twitter account bragged about downing another Turkish UCAV today, but it appears to be a Wing Loong II UCAV operated by their side. Possibly another friendly fire incident. 28/
29/
30/
Allegedly footage taken from a Turkish TB2 UCAV of a destroyed Pantsir-S1 at al-Watiyah Airbase. Obviously, it is hard to tell what is on fire. 31/
Video of the alleged TB2 air strike on a Pantsir-S1 in Libya today. 32/
33/
And footage from a Turkish TB2 UCAV with the data unblurred showing an air strike that happened today on a target in an aircraft hangar at the al-Watiyah Airbase. 34/
35/
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37/
If true, we should see evidence pretty soon of the Pantsirs the GNA said they destroyed. 38/
39/
And there is one of those UAE Pantsir-S1, apparently abandoned by the LNA (it is a high value target for TB2 UCAVs). Looks like it might be damaged but not destroyed as the GNA previously claimed. 40/
t.me/rybar/11222
41/
Nice look at that captured Emirati Pantsir-S1 air defense system. 42/
And now the pro-Turkish Clash Report posted a video purportedly of a TB2 UCAV strike on another Pantsir-S1 south of Sirte while being transported on a tractor-trailer. 43/
t.me/ClashReport/175
Pretty ambitious claims, and it would be interesting if Krasukha 2 or 4 EW systems were deployed in Libya.
44/
Two photos of the Emirati Pantsir-S1 air defense system captured by GNA forces today at the al-Watiyah Airbase. 45/
t.me/rybar/11250
GNA forces also apparently captured a Mi-35M helicopter. 46/
t.me/rybar/11252
47/
Another video showing a TB2 UCAV striking a tractor-trailer in Libya. Clash Report claims it was a Krasukha EW system (resembles a Krasukha-2 more than a Krasukha-4), but it is hard to tell what it was. 48/
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After months of the LNA posting photos of downed Turkish TB2 UCAVs, you get the feeling that Turkey and the GNA are happy to make the most of their PR coup today. 51/
Yeah, they seem like they’re enjoying themselves with their newly captured Pantsir-S1. 52/
t.me/new_militaryco…
This video shows the captured Pantsir-S1, but also appears to show a second destroyed Pantsir-S1 under the rubble from one of the hangars at the end.
53/
Screenshots showing the intact Pantsir-S1 and what appears to be a second destroyed Pantsir-S1 under rubble. The screens and wheels look similar to the Pantsir-S1 on a MAN SX 45 8×8 chassis that was only purchased by the UAE. 54/
“Turkish-supplied antiaircraft systems pushed Emirati drones out of range, handing back air supremacy to the Tripoli-based government. Turkish officers also provided intelligence and C2 for the Tripoli government’s poorly organized militias” 55/
wsj.com/articles/libya…
56/
Clash Report released another video of a Turkish TB2 UCAV strike on an Emirati Pantsir-S1 (it appears its radar was active). They claim that 6 Pantsir-S1 have been destroyed/captured over the last 48 hours. 57/
t.me/ClashReport/182
Another video showing an air strike on an Emirati Pantsir-S1. 58/
t.me/new_militaryco…
59/
@emre876204 makes a good point. The videos show two of the Pantsirs with their radars in operation. The Pantsir’s 57E6E missiles’ max range is 20km (detection range is greater) the TB2 with MAM-L is only 8km. So either EW is being employed or the Pantsir crews are incompetent.60/
61/
Purpotedly, photo one of the recently damaged Pantsir-S1 in Libya, but it is on a KAMAZ-6560 chassis, not a MAN-SX45 that the UAE purchased. Not sure if this means the UAE also bought KAMAZ variants or if another country is sending Pantsirs to Libya. 62/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
Look's like the same Pantsir-S1 from a video posted yesterday, but clearly with more damage. 63/
Hard to be sure, but it appears the aquisition radar is the newer octagonal-shaped S-band 1RS1-3-RLM radar and not the older rectangular radar (which all Emirati Pantsirs have AFAIK). Syria, Algeria, Iraq, Ethipopia, and some other countries have the newer version. 64/
Good point. 65/
The GNA is parading the captured Pantsir-S1 around Tripoli. 66/
t.me/new_militaryco…
New Clash Report video showing TB2 strikes on Pantsirs in Libya. They are claiming 15 have been destroyed so far, and the video appears to show strikes on 7 of them (most are old footage). 67/
t.me/ClashReport/185
Pretty sure the footage of these 2 Pantsir-S1 hasn’t been shown before. 68/
The GNA's security chief Fathi Bashagha said at least six MiG-29s and two Su-24s have flown into eastern Libya from Russia's Khmeimim Airbase in Syria, escorted by two Russian Air Force Su-35 fighters, to bolster the LNA. 69/
bloomberg.com/news/articles/…
Last week the Записки охотника Telegram Channel said that a Russian Tu-154 aircraft landed in Iran's Hamadan Airbase as a stop over as it flew from Russian to Syria, and it was escorted by 6 MiG-29 fighters. Presumably, these are the same fighters. 70/
avia.pro/news/rossiya-p…
A clash report info graphic about the recent events in Libya. 71/
t.me/ClashReport/189
The LNA posted a video taken from a Turkish Kirpi MRAP’s camera showing it arriving in Libya in February-March 2019 before being captured at the end of March 2020 (when the footage ends). 72/
t.me/new_militaryco…
73/
The Turkish Anadolu news agency released an infographic ID'ing the locations of the 9 Pantsirs they claim were destroyed over the previous 4 days in Libya. 74/
vk.com/milinfolive?z=…
75/
So over the past two days it seems the LNA managed to shoot down 2 Turkish TB2 UCAVs and one Wing Loong II UCAV (friendly fire). 76/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
Certainly look like Russian private military contractors. 77/
78/
The Msta-B 152mm towed howitzer was arguably the main workhorse of Russia's intervention in Syria, especially when equipped with Krasnopol laser-guided artillery rounds. 79/
Also spotted today was a 122mm D-30 howitzer being towed by a, presumably Russian PMC, technical. 80/
t.me/grey_zone/2940
One obvious question is whether Turkey will try to strike Russian PMC convoys with their UCAVs, which now lack air defense coverage after the loss of the Pantsir-S1s, or whether they will try to limit their air strikes to LNA and non-Russian forces (as they did in Idlib). 81/
Deliberate targeting of Wagner will almost certainly lead to a strong Russian escalation, and the decision to send MiG-29 fighters may have been a primarily defensive move to protect Russian PMC contractors from TB2 UCAVs (with the option of using them for offensive missions).82/
Another video showing a large convoy of technicals and an Emirati Pantsir-S1, presumably from today. 83/
t.me/milinfolive/60…
84/
Another video purportedly showing a Russian PMC convoy in Libya from the Russian PMC-linked RSOTM Telegram channel. Notably, in this video there are several Russian Tigr vehicles and another Pantsir-S1 on a KAMAZ-6560 chassis (likely not from the UAE). 85/
t.me/grey_zone/2949
Screenshots of that Pantsir-S1 on a KAMAZ-6560 chassis. Since that variant of the Pantsir isn’t in service with UAE (AFAIK), seems most likely that Russian PMCs are operating their own Pantsirs. A photo emerged this week of another KAMAZ-6560 Pantsir-S1 that was destroyed. 86/
AFRICOM's Gen. Stephen Townsend said the same while testifying to Congress in March. This seems like the best explanation for seeing that variant of the Pantsir-S1 in a Russian PMC convoy in Libya. The UAE has lost at least 20% of their 50 Pantsirs. 87/
There were at least two Russian Tigr vehicles (I think Tigr-M but can’t tell for sure) in the convoy which are standard across the Russian military. 88/
Last Photo: Vitaly Kuzmin
Also that same tan 6x6 MRAP (not sure what kind) that photographed earlier. 89/
More photos from that Russian PMC convoy with Tigr-M and Ural-4320 vehicles. 90/
t.me/new_militaryco…
91/
Look's like an M-30 122mm howitzer behind the BM-21 Grad MLRS in that video. A bunch of the techincals in the earlier video are carrying either a large mortar or possibly more M-30s. 92/
It seems the LNA shot down another of their Wing Loong II UAVs, the second in two days. 93/
Among the equipment left behind by retreating GNA forces (and Russian PMC) in southern Tripoli was a MON-200 anti-personnel mine. 94/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
95/
96/
Video showing LNA An-26 military transport aircraft landing at Bani Walid Airport, and one of those Pantsir-S1 air defense systems on a KAMAZ-6560, likely operated by Russian private military contractors. 97/
Likely the same Pantsir-S1 on a KAMAZ-6560 chassis seen in yesterday's Russian PMC convoy today at the Bani Walid Airport. 98/
Look's like the same tan 6x6 MRAP. 99/
An An-72 military transport aircraft was also reportedly spotted arriving at the Bani Walid Airport today. 100/
vk.com/milinfolive?z=…
Salem Alaywan, Bani Walid’s mayor, said that Russian private military contractors flew out of Bani Walid today to Jufra. Seems likely that Turkey and Russia reached a deal to allow Russian PMC fighters to retreat without being struck by Turkish UCAVs. 101/
uk.reuters.com/article/libya-…
102/
103/
So AFRICOM commander General Stephen Townsend confirmed that Russian aircraft have arrived in Syria. Interestingly, they posted a photo of a Russian Su-34 attack aircraft (which hadn't been mentioned before) as well as the MiG-29, Su-24, and Su-35S. 104/
dvidshub.net/image/6220921/…
Even though Townsend said that the MiG-29 were repainted to not appear as Russian Air Force aircraft, the Su-24 has Russian Air Force markings on its tail, and the Su-34 and Su-35 are clearly Russian Air Force (only Russia operates the Su-34 and those aren't Chinese Su-35). 105/
Maybe this indicates that Russia is only planning on leaving the MiG-29 aircraft there, which could indicate they are primarily there to perform a defensive counter-air mission likely to protect Russian PMC contractors. 106/
Of course, Turkey chose to not strike the Russian PMC column as it departed Tripoli, which would have been perceived as an escalation. The Su-34 and Su-24 aircraft serve as a credible deterrent if Turkey decides to escalate, as they could strike Turkey's UCAVs on the ground. 107/
AFRICOM also released a photo of a passenger aircraft, possibly a Tu-154. It isn't completly clear what the purpose of this deployment is (the decision was likely made weeks ago). Maybe Russia is defending the status quo, or maybe they will try to escalate with air support. 108/
The Su-34 and Su-35 are clearly not being flown by "mercenary pilots" though the MiG-29 and Su-24 could be (there are plenty of foreign operators especially in the Middle East). 109/
More photos of Russian PMC contractors in Libya with that tan 6x6 MRAP. Interestingly, the Tigr are the 5-door VPK-233136 variant, which are relatively rare but were exported to Uzbekistan and Uruguay. 110/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
Another satellite photo of those newly-arrived Russian Su-24. 111/
112/
Another video of Russian PMC contractors in Bani Walid, including Tigr vehicles. (h/t @AbraxasSpa) 113/
A defense official told CNN that "at least" 14 Russian aircraft have flown to Libya. 114/
cnn.com/2020/05/26/pol…
115/
116/
@pfc_joker has some good details in this thread. 117/
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119/
One of the broader points about the situation in Libya is that, 6 years after the US/EU tried to isolate Moscow, Russia is once again a power broker in another Mediterranean country that NATO can't ignore. This is a Russian FP success. 120/
wsj.com/articles/russi…
121/
122/
Video from 3 days ago of Russian private military contractors at the Bani Walid Airfield with one of the Emirati Pantsir-S1 on a MAN SX 45 chassis and an Il-76 military transport aircraft. 123/
124/
AFRICOM said that three of the 14 MiG-29 and Su-24 aircraft that recently arrived at al-Jufra, Libya are being used to support Russian PMC operations, including MiG-29 aircraft photographed near Sirte. 125/
africom.mil/pressrelease/3…
These photos of MiG-29 fighters over Sirte was posted on June 10. 126/
CSIS also published satellite photos of Al Jufra Air Base from May and June. 127/
csis.org/analysis/mosco…
Two more satellite photos of MiG-29 fighters from Al Jufra Air Base in Libya. 128/
csis.org/analysis/mosco…
Novaya Gazeta has an article about Vladimir Skopinov, a 61st Naval Infantry Brigade veteran, who was killed in Libya as a private military contractor in January 2020, less than a month after he arrived. He previously fought in the Donbass and Syria. 129/
novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/…
He received the "For Courage" medal from the government in 2018. Interestingly, he also received awards from Wagner that says he shot at an Apache (presumably Apache helicopters) which indicates he was at the February 2018 fight between Wagner and US forces in Deir ez-Zor. 130/
After being wounded in Syria, he was hospitalized at the Russian MoD's Central Military Clinical Hospital named after A.A. Vishnevsky. He told his mother he went to Libya because the pay in Syria wasn't sufficient. 131/
132/
I wouldn't be surprised if those recently arrived MiG-29 and Su-24 aircraft begin to take on a more active role in the conflict. 133/
Look's like both are Pantsir-S systems based on a KAMAZ-6560 chassis, instead of the UAE's Pantsir-S on a MAN SX 45. 134/
Video showing what appears to be Russian private military contractors in the town of Sokna, Libya. 135/
t.me/milinfolive/61…
136/
Turkish MANPADS didn't stop the Russian Air Force in Idlib in Feb/March (though they did deter the use of Syrian helicopters), but they could be more effective against the older MiG-29 and Su-24 in Libya if they try to conduct ground attack missions. 137/
138/
New photo of one of the UAE's Pantsir-S1 on a MAN SX45 chassis reportedly near Sirte. 139/
vk.com/milinfolive?z=…
140/
Turkey's Minister of Defense Hulusi Akar is currently in Libya. 141/
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Reuters' sources also said that LNA aircraft conducted airstrikes on al-Wattiyah Airbase last night. 144/
reuters.com/article/us-lib…
145/
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Clash Report claims that the GNA UCAVs destroyed another LNA Pantsir. 148/
149/
Photos purportedly of Russian PMC contractors in Sawknah, Libya. 150/
vk.com/milinfolive?w=…
Photo of one of those Wagner PMC 6x6 MRAPs we’ve seen in Libya based on a Ural-4320 chassis. They were previously spotted in Deir ez-Zor in 2017. 151/
t.me/milinfolive/61…
Video of a column of military vehicles reportedly headed in the direction of Sirte. Hard to tell, but it look's like one or two Pantsir-S AD systems and armored Ural-4320 trucks. 152/
The 1st vehicle on the back of the trailer has its radar scanning (presumably a Pantsir-S1). The 2nd appears to be a Pantsir-S1 on a KAMAZ-6560 chassis. Not sure what the dark truck is in the 3rd screenshot, and what appears to be an armored Ural-4320 in the 4th screenshot. 153/
Yep, a Pantsir-S1 on a KAMAZ-6560 chassis with the original VNIIRT target acquisition radar and tan Ural-4320 trucks. 154/
155/
The before and after photos of the air strike on al-Watiya Air base. Look's like some of the Hawk air defense systems were destroyed but not all of them (and it seems there were some near misses). 156/
Novaya Gazeta tracked down the information on that Russian PMC MRAP based of a Ural-432007-0111-31 chassis. According to EEU documentation, it was built by Evro Polis, Yevgeny Prigozhin's company, linked to the Wagner PMC. 157/
novayagazeta.ru/articles/2020/…
158/
159/
That airstrike on al-Watiyah certainly sent a signal, but the overall military result appears to not be that significant. 160/
161/
Photo purportedly of vehicles heading to Sirte. They appear to be more Russian PMC Ural-4320 trucks. 162/
t.me/rybar/12817
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Notably, Presidents Putin and Erdogan spoke yesterday.
166/
 en.kremlin.ru/events/preside…
Seems as though Al-Haddath is reporting that S-300 and Buk air defense systems are being deployed to Libya. 167/
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New satellite photos of Al Jufrah Air Base showing two Su-24 attack aircraft near hardened hangars. 173/
thedrive.com/the-war-zone/3…
From the DoD's quarterly IG report, "As many as 2,500 fighters associated with the Wagner Group, a Russian paramilitary company, and as many as 3,800 Syrian fighters were in Libya during the quarter." 174/
dodig.mil/Reports/Lead-I…
And the portion of the DoD's quarterly IG on Syrian mercenaries in Libya. 175/
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Libyan GNA fighters head for front as battle for Sirte looms
177/
 reuters.com/article/us-lib…
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AFRICOM posted two satellite photos of Russian Wagner PMC equipment in Libya from July 13-14. The first shows three VPK-233136 Tigr-M vehicles and one of the Wagner MRAPs on a Ural-432007-0111-31 chassis and contractors in Sirte, Libya. 186/
africom.mil/pressrelease/3…
The other satellite photo, from Al-Khadim Airfield on July 13, shows two Su-24 attack aircraft, an Il-76 transport aircraft, and two Pantsir-S1 air defense systems (it appears both are on KAMAZ-6560 chassis). 187/
africom.mil/pressrelease/3…
Look's like Turkey has erected HESCO-type barriers around their Hawk air defense systems at Al-Watiya after the air strike from earlier this month. 188/
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191/
Look's like a pair of those Wagner/LNA MiG-29 fighters over Sirte. 192/
So Russia has signaled they will defend Sirte with MiG-29 for defensive counter air operations and Su-24 for performing ground attack missions. Neither has been used thus far to attack Turkish positions (AFAIK), but any Turkish/GNA assault on Sirte will have to counter them. 193/
So unless Turkey is willing to escalate, by deploying more sophisticated air defenses, fighter aircraft, or some other method, any assault on Sirte will likely involve Turkish TB-2 UCAVs getting shot down and GNA forces struck by Su-24 aircraft. 194/
195/
Certainly look's like the inside of a Mi-8/17 helicopter.
196/
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200/
I missed this from before, but that does look like a Groza-S counter-UAV system (h/t @FranMatiasBueno). Good catch by @Michael1Sheldon. 201/
202/
Video likely of a Russian Wagner PMC convoy headed from from al-Jufra towards Sirte. I counted three Tigr vehicles (none with crew-served weapons in the turrets) and 8 Ural-4320 (or derivatives) trucks. 203/
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205/
Higher quality video of that Wagner PMC convoy moving towards Sirte (h/t @il_kanguru). The three Tigrs are clearly the 5-door VPK-233136 Tigr-M variant, like what we saw before in Libya (but with a tan paint job). 206/
The three tan 5-door VPK-233136 Tigr-M vehicles in the video and the gray Tigr-M photographed in May. 207/
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209/
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Rob Lee
@RALee85
Belarus' Belta reports that 32 Russian Wagner private military contractors were detained last night near Minsk. Belarusian law enforcement say they received information that >200 Wagner contractors arrived to destabilize Belarus during the election.
belta.by/incident/view/…
Belta reports that the group arrived in Belarus on July 24-25 and checked into a hotel in Minsk and then moved to a sanatorium. Belta's sources say that each man had hand luggage and 3 large suitcases. They were arrested by the Belarusian KGB's Alfa group and an OMON unit. 2/
Here is the list of 33 Russian citizens who were detained by the Belarusian security services. 32 were detained near Minsk and one was detained in southern Belarus. 3/
Read 62 tweets
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Rob Lee
@RALee85
Izvestia reports that the Russian Navy will test modular weapon systems and equipment that can be housed in 20 or 40-foot shipping containers. These can include cruise missiles, anti-ship missiles, Redut/Pantsir-M-type AD system, and submarine defenses.
iz.ru/1038280/roman-…
Of course, Russia has previously developed the Club-K, the export variant of the Kalibr missile, that can be employed from shipping containers. Now Russia is looking to add other systems, including anti-submarine torpedo and hydroacoustic systems. 2/
They have also developed a medical container with an operating room and an intensive care unit that can be used to improve a ship's medical capabilities for humanitarian assistance and disaster relief (HADR) operations. 3/
Read 6 tweets
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Rob Lee
@RALee85
There was a skirmish between Armenian and Azeri forces near the border in Tovuz. Azerbaijan's MoD said that two of its soldiers have been killed and another 5 were wounded.
militarynews.ru/story.asp?rid=…
Unconfirmed photo of the Azerbaijani UAZ-469 destroyed during today’s skirmish between Armenian and Azerbaijani forces. 2/
t.me/milinfolive/61… Image
Azerbaijan's MoD released a video reportedly showing an Armenian "strongpoint" struck by Azerbaijani forces. They said they employed mortars, artillery, and tanks last night to strike Armenian positions. 3/
mod.gov.az/en/news/the-un…
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