“deaths in UK are higher than we would wish, I think is all I can say”, says Deputy Chief Scientist Angela McLean over the Government official COBR “Global Death Comparison” chart and also... “Real issue, need to get to grips with what is happening in care homes”... 
get there are caveats over comparability.. but this is actual COBR chart presented to ministers every day for several weeks literally titled “Global Death Comparison”.
Other similar charts point to same.
point of publishing it is, it points to patterns, helps refine strategy
Other similar charts point to same.
point of publishing it is, it points to patterns, helps refine strategy
Number 10 tweets out its “Global Death comparison” slide about ten minutes after the First Min says its too early for them??
(First Sec, obvs)
Some background factors to bear in mind for comparing UK and Italy...
Population? UK 66m vs Italy 60m
BUT Demographics? Italy older than UK, so over 65 population
UK: 12.2m Italy: 13.8m
Obesity? UK 20% of population. Italy 11%
Some background factors to bear in mind for comparing UK and Italy...
Population? UK 66m vs Italy 60m
BUT Demographics? Italy older than UK, so over 65 population
UK: 12.2m Italy: 13.8m
Obesity? UK 20% of population. Italy 11%
But the path of Italy’s infection was also 2.5-3 weeks ahead of the UK’s - that could have been a significant factor that might have provided the opportunity & time to avoid being in the same ballpark as Italy’s figures - that didn’t happen.
So wherever the final figures land, question is whether response to that comparison chart is:
A. Not comparable, nothing to see here.
Or
B. How, despite having 2-3 week headstart, & despite health system remaining within capacity are there same* order of deaths in UK as Italy?
A. Not comparable, nothing to see here.
Or
B. How, despite having 2-3 week headstart, & despite health system remaining within capacity are there same* order of deaths in UK as Italy?
And at this point people will say: “you cant tell”, “save it till the inquiry”...
But with no vaccine this thing might hit us again soonish. Surely we want to learn every lesson now, before then?
For example: why was the peak in care homes 7-9 days after hospitals?
But with no vaccine this thing might hit us again soonish. Surely we want to learn every lesson now, before then?
For example: why was the peak in care homes 7-9 days after hospitals?
The strategy to protect NHS capacity at all costs succeeded - that was PM’s claim re “apparent success”... but was it actually the right singular strategy? Did it neglect care homes?
Should Nightingales have been “fever clinics” to prevent discharge to care homes, not mini-ICUs?
Should Nightingales have been “fever clinics” to prevent discharge to care homes, not mini-ICUs?
The expert used by PM to say you can’t compare internationally is in Commons committee tomorrow & has this to say...
Health Sec told @KayBurley today in comparing UK and Italy for example should use population, demographics, obesity etc - said this above..
UK population 6m more than Italy (60m)
BUT Italian over 65 population isn’t just a much higher proportion it’s also 1.6m higher in people
UK population 6m more than Italy (60m)
BUT Italian over 65 population isn’t just a much higher proportion it’s also 1.6m higher in people
Indeed looking at latest ONS stats for UK and ISS stats for Italy - the proportion of Covid deaths from over 65s is the vast bulk 88-89% of deaths in both countries..
Italy has more people in this key risk factor - being over 65.
epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus…
ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpe…
Italy has more people in this key risk factor - being over 65.
epicentro.iss.it/en/coronavirus…
ons.gov.uk/file?uri=%2fpe…
UK does have (acc to Eurostat in 2014) much larger proportion of obese people (BMI greater than 30) - 20% vs 11%... which could be important factor in other direction - but that in itself makes the point of the helpfulness of international comparisons...
