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I made a slide on for upcoming talks on scenario misuse:
➡️RCP8.5 as BAU
➡️SSP3-8.5 chimera
➡️assuming climate changes but society does not
➡️ignoring economic growth
& other scenario misuses in the new PNAS paper
The paper, and media reporting, approaches & maybe goes over the line of fear-mongering over poor brown people coming to a climate niche near you
Here's 2 authors of the paper
And yet ...
Under the very same SSP scenarios by 2100 places like Nigeria projected to have per capita GDP levels approaching $100k
They will be able to afford air conditioners
Leimbach et al 2017. Future growth patterns of world regions–A GDP scenario approach. GEC. sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Just look at the imagery that accompanies reporting of the paper -- could have a great class discussion on the echoes of Huntington's climate determinism that live on today in the images used to stir fear of climate change ...
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
New WMO assessment of projected changes in tropical cyclones in Western North Pacific (~1/3 global TCs)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Summary for 2100 (assumes +2 deg C)
~10% fewer
~5% more intense
~0% change in most intense
~10% increase in proportion most intense
~17% increase precip
TC trends in the WNP from part 1 of the WMO assessment: "there is a statistically significant decreasing trend in annual counts of storms of at least tropical storm intensity or at least typhoon intensity"
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
and for completeness, landfalling TCs in China, Japan, Thailand
Read 3 tweets
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
RCP8.5 as BAU study o' the day
(actually very good news here - would seem to imply an expert consensus on SLR <1m under more plausible scenarios, lots of uncertainties of course)

Sea levels could rise more than a metre by 2100, experts say theguardian.com/environment/20…
Even including RCP8.5 studies the IPCC assessments of SLR to 2100 have been remarkably consistent over decades Garner et al 2019 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20… )
So too has the underlying peer-reviewed research on SLR to 2100
(from excellent Garner et al 2019 agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1029/20…)

Figures below
Top= high emissions (eg RCP8.5)
Center= middle emissions (eg RCP4.5)
Bottom= low emissions (eg RCP2.6)

Tan strip= IPCC range
Read 5 tweets
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
Fantastic resource @unisouthampton @CIRUsoton on global trends in Coronavirus research
Coronavirus R&D Dashboard
app.powerbi.com/view?r=eyJrIjo…
In 2020, the world is so far spending ~$420m on Covid-19 related R&D
Historically, the US has led investments into Coronavirus research
But in 2020, the US has so far contributed only 1.1% to the global total
The biggest contributions -- 61% -- come via the Coalition for Epidemic Preparedness Innovation (CEPI) Hqed in Norway and founded in 2017 in Davos
The US is not a partner of CEPI
cepi.net
Read 4 tweets

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