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New WMO assessment of projected changes in tropical cyclones in Western North Pacific (~1/3 global TCs)
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
Summary for 2100 (assumes +2 deg C)
~10% fewer
~5% more intense
~0% change in most intense
~10% increase in proportion most intense
~17% increase precip
TC trends in the WNP from part 1 of the WMO assessment: "there is a statistically significant decreasing trend in annual counts of storms of at least tropical storm intensity or at least typhoon intensity"
sciencedirect.com/science/articl…
and for completeness, landfalling TCs in China, Japan, Thailand
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
It is always uncomfortable when you read a climate paper hyped in the press release-media spin cycle only to find that the paper doesn't support what it claims ... short thread ...
New PNAS paper out today on hurricanes claims "Increases and trends are found in the exceedance probability and proportion of major (Saffir−Simpson categories 3 to 5) TC intensities ..."
The paper actually shows this claim is not true "the absence of a probability shift at the most intense part of the intensity spectrum, as seen in Fig. 1"

According to the paper, the probability of a major hurricane has not increased at the greatest intensity levels (>~110 kts)
Read 8 tweets
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
"CU Boulder is facing a budget shortfall ranging from $121 million to $651 million next year due to reduced state funding, increased costs related to coronavirus and loss of revenue from on-campus events, housing, dining and more."
In 2019/20 CU-Boulder received about $895m in student tuition and fees
For the tuition part, every 1% reduction in out-of-state enrollment would correspond to a ~$5m decrease in revenue
For in-state it is ~$2.9m per -1%
In 2019/20 CU Boulder had 35,528 students

20,713 in-state (~$12,000 revenue per student tuition)
14,815 out-of-state (~$34,000 revenue per student tuition)

OOS students are ~40% of total students but ~66% of student tuition revenue
Read 9 tweets
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Roger Pielke Jr.
@RogerPielkeJr
Interesting new paper uses our hurricane data to estimate that @NOAA @NHC_Atlantic hurricane forecasts reduce hurricane damage by ~$1.8B/yr 1970-2018
Net benefit: $30-71B
Martinez 2020. Forecast Accuracy Matters for Hurricane Damage. Econometrics mdpi.com/2225-1146/8/2/…
Martinez 2020 has this excellent viz clearly showing the improvement of hurricane track forecast errors since 1950s
Appears improvements really started ~1985
The 12-hr ahead hurricane landfall forecast errors clearly shows a steady improvement but also the elimination of the biggest errors
Bravo @NOAA @NHC_Atlantic
Read 4 tweets

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