1/ Thread: Invisible asymptotes by @eugenewei
When companies go through S-curve, we salivate for hockey-stick growth.
Then one day it hits the upper-shoulder of the curve.
"Day 2 is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by excruciating painful decline. Followed by death"
When companies go through S-curve, we salivate for hockey-stick growth.
Then one day it hits the upper-shoulder of the curve.
"Day 2 is stasis. Followed by irrelevance. Followed by excruciating painful decline. Followed by death"
2/ "We focus so much on product-market fit, but once companies have achieved some semblance of it, most should spend much more time on the problem of product-market unfit."
What was $AMZN's invisible asymptote?
Shipping fees.
What was $AMZN's invisible asymptote?
Shipping fees.
3/ If shipping/delivery fees is the invisible asymptote, what does it imply for $GRUB, DoorDash, Postmates etc?
They all tried to come up with their own "Prime", but adoption is not really Prime-esque.
They all tried to come up with their own "Prime", but adoption is not really Prime-esque.
4/ How about $TWTR?
Well, it already reached the invisible asymptote, and Wei thinks some product iterations wouldn't change anything.
Well, it already reached the invisible asymptote, and Wei thinks some product iterations wouldn't change anything.
5/ But there could be other levers.
"Twitter's rate of product development internally has been glacial. A vibrant third party-developer program could have helped by massively increasing the vectors of development on Twitter's very elegant public messaging protocol and datasets."
"Twitter's rate of product development internally has been glacial. A vibrant third party-developer program could have helped by massively increasing the vectors of development on Twitter's very elegant public messaging protocol and datasets."
6/ $SNAP
"At a deeper level, I think a person's need for ephemeral content varies across one's lifetime. It's of much higher value when one is young, especially in formative years. As one ages, and time's counter starts to run low, one turns nostalgic"
"At a deeper level, I think a person's need for ephemeral content varies across one's lifetime. It's of much higher value when one is young, especially in formative years. As one ages, and time's counter starts to run low, one turns nostalgic"
7/ "The most interesting question is whether $SNAP's cohort stays with it for life, and the next interesting question is who attracts the next generation of kids to get their first smartphones."
8/ $FB
I can vouch that apart from innocuous family pics, it is indeed challenging to post anything else in $FB.
So who posts then?
"some psychopaths who are comfortable sharing their thoughts no matter the size of the audience, but these people are often annoying"
I can vouch that apart from innocuous family pics, it is indeed challenging to post anything else in $FB.
So who posts then?
"some psychopaths who are comfortable sharing their thoughts no matter the size of the audience, but these people are often annoying"
9/ "The most obvious path to this is Groups, which can subdivide large graphs into ones more unified in purpose or ideology."
This was prescient as I have been surprised how *Groups* have exploded in engagement in my own Newsfeed.
This was prescient as I have been surprised how *Groups* have exploded in engagement in my own Newsfeed.
10/ Instagram
IG's biggest advantage? Every single post is an ad.
IG's biggest advantage? Every single post is an ad.
11/ What about $AMZN again? What's the next invisible asymptote for them?
Shipping Speed.
Shipping Speed.
12/ However, what $AMZN lacks is perhaps seduction.
"Seduction is a gift, and most people in technology vastly overestimate how much of customer happiness is solvable by data-driven algorithms while underestimating the ROI of seduction."
"Seduction is a gift, and most people in technology vastly overestimate how much of customer happiness is solvable by data-driven algorithms while underestimating the ROI of seduction."
13/ So how do you identify the invisible asymptote?
Ask your customers.
Customers may not know what they want, but they usually do know what they don't want.
Ask your customers.
Customers may not know what they want, but they usually do know what they don't want.
14/ "Customer are “divinely discontent”. What is amazing today is table stakes tomorrow...
...if your company is predicated on delivering the best possible experience for consumers, then your company will never achieve its goal."
...if your company is predicated on delivering the best possible experience for consumers, then your company will never achieve its goal."
End/ "Amazon's mission to the be the world's most customer-centric company is inherently a long-term strategy because it is a one with an infinite time scale and no asymptote to its slope."
This was a long, fascinating read.
Link: eugenewei.com/blog/2018/5/21…
This was a long, fascinating read.
Link: eugenewei.com/blog/2018/5/21…
