1/ Thread: Nuggets from Howard Marks recent memo
Four things are happening *simultaneously* which have no historic precedence:
1. The pandemic
2. The economic contraction
3. Oil price collapse
4. Fed/govt. response.
The list of questions without clear answer is a lengthy one.
Four things are happening *simultaneously* which have no historic precedence:
1. The pandemic
2. The economic contraction
3. Oil price collapse
4. Fed/govt. response.
The list of questions without clear answer is a lengthy one.
2/ “Who can respond to this many questions, come up with valid answers, consider their interaction, appropriately weight their various considerations on the basis of their importance, and process them for a useful conclusion regarding the virus’s impact?”
3/ Quotes on forecasting:
"No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all of your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about future"
"Those who have knowledge don't predict; those who predict don't have knowledge"
"Forecasts usually tell...
"No amount of sophistication is going to allay the fact that all of your knowledge is about the past and all your decisions are about future"
"Those who have knowledge don't predict; those who predict don't have knowledge"
"Forecasts usually tell...
4/ "...us more of the forecaster than of the future"
Quoting Marks now: "People who are always sure are no more helpful than people who are never sure. The real expert’s confidence is reason-based and proportional to the weight of the evidence."
Quoting Marks now: "People who are always sure are no more helpful than people who are never sure. The real expert’s confidence is reason-based and proportional to the weight of the evidence."
5/ Other quotes Marks mentioned:
"Incompetent people are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent but also likely unaware of it."
“It would be foolish, amid such uncertainty, to make overly confident predictions about how the world economic order will...
"Incompetent people are at a double disadvantage, since they are not only incompetent but also likely unaware of it."
“It would be foolish, amid such uncertainty, to make overly confident predictions about how the world economic order will...
End/ "...look in five years, or even five months”
“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd”
Full memo link: oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-s…
“Doubt is not a pleasant condition, but certainty is absurd”
Full memo link: oaktreecapital.com/docs/default-s…
