Thread by @DFBeanCounter

A lot of people will tell you to sell your firsts because the draft is a coin flip...

Dont listen to those people. Just apply basic analytics and you can make a tidy profit in rookie years.

(thread)

63% of rookies drafted in the first round of dynasty rookie drafts maintain or gain startup ADP value after their first year.

7.56 out of 12. slightly better than a coin toss. But if we just filter out the three worst analytic profiles each year lets see if we can improve that.

Here is 2019's rookies.

The three worst profiles based on what I look at were:

Butler - unproductive 4th round pick
Parris - never productive in college
Deebo - One season of production in college.

Guess what, 2 of those guys busted. EZ money.

That leaves us with 9 possible choices in the first round. Two of those other guys busted as well; N'keal and JJAW.

Leaving us with 7/9 stayed the same or increased their value.

7/9 = 77.78%.

2018 was a strong class (similar to 2020). The three worst profiles imo were:

Ronald Jones - Skinny, bad receiver, poor yards created per @GrahamBarfield's yards created metric

Royce Freeman - senior, had a complier profile, failed in yards created

Ridley - late BOA, Skinny

That leaves us with 9 other players of whom Penny was the only bust.

8/9 stayed the same or improved their ADP. 89%

In 2017 the obvious fades based on what I look at were:

Mike Williams - lack of college production
John Ross - lack of college production

They were my full list of fades that year. Just two.

Of the remaining 10 players only OJH busted for ADP.

That leaves us with 9/10 staying the same or increasing in value 90%.

The 2019 class and the 2016 class were considered the weakest classes in most peoples opinion in the from 2014-2020 I'd think. We already looked at 2019 and how that turned out but maybe that was an anomaly.

Lets look at 2016.

Oof, tons of busts.

The three WORST profiles were:

Devontae Booker - day 3 pick
Josh Doctson - poor college production
Kenneth Dixon - day 3 pick

Once we remove them we get 5 players that stayed the same or increased in value. 5/9 = 55%

Lets quickly tally them up:

2019 - 7/9
2018 - 8/9
2017 - 9/10
2016 - 5/9

Total - 29/37 = 78%

Remember that the average was 63%?!

By keeping your draft picks and drafting the player you are getting a nearly free value boost to your roster if you apply analytics to weed out the probably duds.

This also gives you the opportunity to hit a home run on a guy like Juju, Hopkins, Dalvin, Kamara, DJM, AJB etc.

Also, we know a lot about these players odds of success based on their prospect profile, once we can factor in their NFL rookie season on top of that we are MUCH more accurate about which players will succeed and which will eventually flop.

The moral of the story is keep your first round picks, avoid the obvious duds, hope you hit home runs and if things go south, get out fast.

This is something that fuels my dynasty rankings on patreon.