Total trainwreck of the often-praised "swedish approach" to <not> fight the Corona-pandemic
These are only excess deaths up to Apr. 21st.The'official number' at that time was 1765: the dying goes on.IF mitigated now,there'll be at least ~8000 unnecessary deaths
Details later
These are only excess deaths up to Apr. 21st.The'official number' at that time was 1765: the dying goes on.IF mitigated now,there'll be at least ~8000 unnecessary deaths
Details later
(A) Let us start with "what to do now?"...
( I) Swedish nations deserves an apology from their CDC and the government.
(II) Persons with a moral background and competence have to be put in charge of the further approach (and fast!).
( I) Swedish nations deserves an apology from their CDC and the government.
(II) Persons with a moral background and competence have to be put in charge of the further approach (and fast!).
Concrete actions now:
a) recommendation to wear masks #Mask4all
(seek help from Korea; import millions of masks)
b) apply at least the "5 rules" from S-Korea for improved distancing
c) introduce the "2 m distance" rule
d) ramp up testing now
a) recommendation to wear masks #Mask4all
(seek help from Korea; import millions of masks)
b) apply at least the "5 rules" from S-Korea for improved distancing
c) introduce the "2 m distance" rule
d) ramp up testing now
(B) Analysis:
(1) There has never been any evidence behind the claim, that the number of infections have already reached half of the Swedish population and that >95% of all cases are just asymptomatic. That was the core mistake.
(1) There has never been any evidence behind the claim, that the number of infections have already reached half of the Swedish population and that >95% of all cases are just asymptomatic. That was the core mistake.
(1a) ...on the contrary: I posted this more than a month ago: If there were more than 4 times infected compared to the 'confirmed cases' in Hongkong, S-Korea, AUT, NZ ... it would never have been possible for these countries to contain the outbreaks.
(1b) Now, of course, swedish testing of confirmed cases was (and is) totally undercounting; they detected only ~one fourth of the cases compared to S-Korea. Well, they knew that and said "for herd immunity strategy we do not need testing". {main reason for high CFR in SE}
(1c) Yes, there are very mild cases and a few even asymptomatic ones. How many these are, a scientific solid basis is still not available. From what I have seen the dark factor might be between 5 and 15 {with respect to Germany counting regime}.
(2) This will result (with the true death tolls from excess death counting) in an IFR between 0,3% at the lowest & 1,1% (highest)estimate.(IFR = infection fatality rate, number of people who die after infected;an important fact here is, that it takes time to die from Covid-19)
(3) It will take another ~14 days to get more precise data from improved serology tests (antibody tests) to lower the error bar of the estimation in (2). Studies under way in Israel e.g.
(4) These facts show, that still at least 87% of the Swedish population is NOT immune. Therefore, many further deaths can still be avoided, if a responsible approach is at least taken now.
(C) Lessons Learned
(1) To be a scientist comes with a responsibility. In the absence of sufficient data, it may be better to take a cautious approach on the safe side.
(1) To be a scientist comes with a responsibility. In the absence of sufficient data, it may be better to take a cautious approach on the safe side.
(2) The "safe side" is the path, in which there are less humans suffering and less deaths; it's not the lazy-approach of just do nothing and wait.
(3) Some persons during this epidemic have shown a persistant display of arrogance and cold-bloodedness. This has damaged the reputation of science. There needs to be a renewed "Oath of Hyppocrates", not only for medics, but for scientists, too.
