@danielgardiner @FireMountainGl1 @DianaUrge @DrEricDing @tomaspueyo Hi Daniel - I would just not care to much for the destracting posts; these are just there to spread chaos. You will not convice these - may be even bots. The facts are as follows:
@danielgardiner @FireMountainGl1 @DianaUrge @DrEricDing @tomaspueyo The only tacts you have for sure are the death statistics. You can look for the excess deaths. What is been declared as "confirmed Coviid-19" deaths is dependent on the conting method, may not include people dying at home, it's different in every country. 
@danielgardiner @FireMountainGl1 @DianaUrge @DrEricDing @tomaspueyo The next data I trust are those from
(1) the Diamond Princess (that was a closed sample)
(2) Taiwan
(3) S-Korea and
(4) Iceland and, to some extend
(5) New York
(1) the Diamond Princess (that was a closed sample)
(2) Taiwan
(3) S-Korea and
(4) Iceland and, to some extend
(5) New York
@danielgardiner @FireMountainGl1 @DianaUrge @DrEricDing @tomaspueyo From (1) to (4) you can estimate the "real" infection-fatality rate. Iceland:0,55% +-0,2(because of the low number,gives a statistical error-range);0,35 to 1,1% is consistent with all these data.We'll reduce the error range in a week or two (reliable antibody tests on the way).
@danielgardiner @FireMountainGl1 @DianaUrge @DrEricDing @tomaspueyo Knowing the IFR you can "recalculate" the number of infections the deaths in the excess death statistics come from. These are in average infections some 20 days ago. So, most of these people will be immune by now.
@danielgardiner @FireMountainGl1 @DianaUrge @DrEricDing @tomaspueyo And, of course, you are right: The dying of the newly infected still goes on. If the detection method of confirmed cases does not change (who knows?), we can use the confirmed cases and correct these by a factor representing the number of really infected we just calculated.
@danielgardiner @FireMountainGl1 @DianaUrge @DrEricDing @tomaspueyo So that will give us a number of really infected right now and an estimation of the deaths in ~20 days. It's a bit omplicated, but can still be done with excel. and, You'll see, we are still 'far from herd immunity' almost everywhere apart from the hot spot.
