Thread by @fascinatorfun

CV19 may have jumped to humans as early as October, study says | South China Morning Post

This is consistent with a small earlier study. I think this one is ⁦from ⁦@BallouxFrancois⁩ team at UCL

NO! It doesn’t mean there a significant mutations scmp.com/news/china/sci…

Tracing in China identified a patient thought to have had CV19 on Nov 17, but was not thought to be “patient zero”.

This suggests a date range from 6 October-11 December 2019.

The earlier the date the more likely it will have spread to Europe/ USA sooner than previously thought

@BallouxFrancois suggests that there will be numerous “patient zeros” as it spreads from country to country creating small mutations along the way that assists in geogenomic tracing.

A reminder about this mutations or variations to a single strain here.

https://twitter.com/fascinatorfun/status/1258127349876490242?s=21

However it would be enormously helpful in understanding transmission and infectability is there was a retrospective review in every country possible of patients who presented with what is now known to be CV19 symptoms but maybe treated for pneumonia.

But, remember, in the U.K. deaths were below the U.K. 5 yr average until mid March.

The question is, does that point to CV19 being a late arrival (consistent with first ID around the end of January) or did it disguise earlier cases dying of COVID?

Maybe it travelled through the young and more robust first, thinking a cold or flu’, before catching up with the elderly?

I shall be looking to the next installment with curiosity.