1. A thread on the CA-25 special, coming up this Tuesday. For obvious reasons, it hasn’t engendered the same amount of interest as, say, PA-18 or OH-12 last cycle
2. Part of this is that we’re in the midst of a presidential campaign, so there’s bigger fish to fry. And of course coronavirus is dominating the news
3. CA-25 is one of seven districts the Democrats flipped in CA last cycle. They’ve taken a 46-7 edge in the statewide House delegation – an absurdly lopsided advantage even taking CA’s overall Dem leaning into account
4. The vacancy in CA-25 was created by the resignation of first-term Rep. Katie Hill (D), who won an impressive nine-point victory over incumbent Rep. Steve Knight (R) last cycle
5. Hill resigned after explicit photos of her were leaked online and as she faced allegations of inappropriate relationships with staffers.
6. CA-25 flipped from Romney +2 to Clinton +7; it covers some northern Los Angeles exurbs, including one of the shrines to modern conservatism: the Reagan Library in Simi Valley (it is well worth a visit for anyone)
7. District is diverse - just about 40% non-Hispanic white, with Latinos making up a similar share of the population.
8. It also is only roughly average in terms of four-year college attainment – that makes it different from many other suburban seats Dems have flipped, which are often significantly higher than average on four-year attainment
9. As recently as 2014, two Republicans advanced to the general election in this district. That said, long-serving Rep. Buck McKeon (R) had a somewhat close call in 2012, his last election (he still won by about 10 pts)
10. The special election is between Christy Smith (D), a state assemblywoman, and Mike Garcia (R), a former Navy pilot
11. Garcia had more competition in the first round of voting than Smith – he dispatched Knight, much to the pleasure of Republican observers, who generally believed Garcia fit the district better
12. Shortly after the March 3 primary, the coronavirus disrupted life. The governor switched CA-25 to an all-mail election, although there will be some limited in-person voting opportunities
13. California, unlike some states, already has a robust mail-in voting apparatus
14. Logistically, the heavy mail format may present organizational challenges for Democrats. A NY Times writeup of the race gets into this organizational dynamic - nytimes.com/2020/05/05/us/…
15. Electorate so far seems to skew R based on current returns, although Ds have time to catch up. @political_data good place to follow trends. First-round voting in primary was basically a draw between the parties
16. Campaign developments have seemed to break Garcia’s way. Smith had to apologize for seeming to downplay Garcia’s military service
17. The district is military/defense production heavy. So you can see why Garcia would lean on bio, and why Smith’s comments might be problematic
18. Smith also has a legislative record (Garcia does not), and Rs have been using some of her votes against her. Ds have been tying Garcia to Trump
19. Dems seem to be setting low expectations for the election. I never quite know what to make of that. See WaPo story for more - washingtonpost.com/politics/democ…
20. We have the race as a Toss-up. If Smith wins, we’ll probably move to Leans D, with expectation that better turnout in fall benefits her. If Garcia wins, probably will stay as Toss-up, for same reason. Reserve right to change mind
21. Basically, I think it’s a test of campaign specifics vs. campaign generalities. Rs probably have candidate and turnout dynamic edge. Ds have district trend and nat’l environment (Trump in WH, etc.)
22. Sometimes when we favor the former over the latter, we miss the forest for the trees. That said, I really just don’t know. We’ll hold it as a Toss-up
23. Rs of course would and should feel great about winning a Clinton-won seat in a special if it happens. They haven't had a pickup in CA in two decades despite some close calls
24. That said, I always try not to overgeneralize from special elections. Beyond turnout, there are some other key differences between this race and the fall race – as well as other competitive House seats
25. One of those differences between this race and the races the Rs are targeting is that it is an open seat; Democrats have incumbents running in nearly every single one of their most vulnerable seats (although many are also ones Trump carried in 2016, unlike CA-25)
26. Another key difference is money: Garcia and Smith have basically been at parity in terms of fundraising
27. The lion’s share of Democrats in competitive districts have big money edges over their GOP rivals, and the main Democratic outside groups collectively also have more money than their GOP counterparts
28. Anyway, interesting race to watch – should get bulk of results overnight Tuesday. If Garcia is not leading when you wake up Wednesday, he almost certainly will lose. So watch to see size of his lead /end thread
