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Remarkable contrast!

SWEDEN, MAY 5
"our most important task is not to stop the spread, which is all but futile"
thelancet.com/journals/lance…

NEW ZEALAND, MAY 9
"An aggressive approach has enabled New Zealand to end community transmission of SARS-CoV-2"
thelancet.com/journals/lance…
One of the most important things about COVID-19 is how little ideology has predicted outcomes so far.

Prior to the crisis many would have categorized Sweden & New Zealand as "progressive", and the UK & Australia as "conservative".

But outcomes have been very different.
From one vantage point, this makes sense. Whatever political party you're in, there are millions of people out there with the same broad ideology.

But are all of them equally competent? No.

After years of focus on politics, the 2020s have shifted the camera to competence.
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
This is interesting. Almost like dredging a swamp.

If you can really test an entire city in ten days, and then superimpose the test results on the WeChat social & proximity graph, you can identify hidden disease reservoirs.

Conceptually similar to this graph, but with 11M nodes
Total testing makes the virus visible.

The social and proximity network defines the graph. The green, yellow, red color code at time T1 defines each node’s reported status. And the most recent test result updates the color on that node at time T2.
If you could really do total testing of the population, whether with logistics or something paradigm-shifting like diagnostic-grade wearables, the virus suddenly becomes visible.

Disease reservoirs seen on a screen as clusters of yellow & red codes.
Read 5 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
We aren’t returning to the 2019 status quo in the US if the pandemic lasts 12-18 months or more.

Economics of many industries can’t survive a year of depressed revenue. College, airlines, theaters, retail, restaurants, so much will change.

Worth formulating a precise bet.
I think The Atlantic is doing a good job of thinking through the possible implications.

Key concept: this is not a passing storm. It’s probably the most documented global event in human history and the most important event since World War 2.
theatlantic.com/category/uncha…
Btw, @NateSilver538 is better than virtually every pundit because he makes quantitative predictions that he’s accountable to, like a tech investment record.

But we need a fast technological breakthrough just to get back to status quo. Part of why it’s an improbable outcome.
Read 4 tweets
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Balaji S. Srinivasan
@balajis
In many ways social networking is more accessible than a physical venue for meeting new people.

It’s pretty rare to strike up a chat with a stranger at a restaurant. Even when people go to bars, they often do so with a group of friends & don’t always talk to new people there.
There’s a scenario where the 20th century was geared for extroverted morning people who like 9-5 routines, going to parties, and watching football games.

And the 21st century is optimized for introverted night people who work whenever they want, read books, and play video games.
It’s kind of already been moving that way with pro football players who love video games, movies about nerd stuff like superheroes and hobbits, the rise of tech, etc.

But could go much farther with virtual reality and virtual currency.
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