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Hey all I am participating in this charity poker tournament at 2pm Eastern today with a bunch of people who are actually talented and famous.
Will be broadcast live here at 2pm: twitch.tv/pokerstars
The charity I've designated is ROAR, which is affiliated with @RobinHoodNYC and is providing assistance to displaced restaurant and food-service workers in New York. Robin Hood is a strongly-rated charity and I'd encourage you to donate to them here: give.robinhood.org/give/279372/#!…
Also, I've given to ROAR/Robin Hood myself separately from the tournament to make sure they get something from me just in case I don't make the final table.

But, of course, I'm planning to make the final table! 2pm here: Twitch.tv/PokerStars
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,286
Yesterday: 1,645
One week ago (5/9): 1,529

Newly reported cases
T: 25K
Y: 26K
5/9: 25K

Newly reported tests
T: 357K
Y: 378K
5/9: 296K

Positive test rate
T: 7%
Y: 7%
5/9: 8%
Cases and testing data about the same as in recent days.

But the deaths numbers are on the lower end of what we've seen recently. Saturdays are typically an average day for reporting, not as bad as Tuesdays and Wednesdays but not as slow as Sundays and Mondays.
I still wouldn't put too much emphasis about any numbers reported on a Saturday. But, this is now 8 straight days with a lower death toll than what was reported than the same day a week earlier. So, that's a little something. Have a good Saturday night, folks.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
While this may not be the only issue, one major difference is that @COVID19Tracking is showing deaths when they were *reported* whereas the CDC is showing deaths when they actually *occurred*.
The problem is that, because there can be a fairly long lag between when a death occurs and when it gets recorded, both ways paint a somewhat incomplete picture. And there's probably not a great third way/middle ground unless you want to do a lot of fancy modeling/estimating.
The CDC way makes the curve look like it's sloping down faster than it actually is because some deaths that have occurred recently haven't been recorded yet.

But the other way to some degree has the opposite problem and can make the peak look later and flatter than it really is.
Read 4 tweets
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking:

Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,645
Yesterday: 1,741
One week ago (5/8): 1,760

Newly reported cases
T: 26K
Y: 25K
5/8: 28K

Newly reported tests
T: 378K
Y: 367K
5/8: 299K

Positive test rate
T: 7%
Y: 7%
5/8: 9%
This has become the new normal, for now. A slow decline in cases and deaths, a fairly steep increase in tests, and a fairly steep decline in the positive test rate. The degree to which you consider this good news or not will depend on your priors.
Of course, things could turn around, in either direction. When might we start to see the effect of re-openings in the data? Actually, it would probably be gradual. Re-openings began as early as Apr. 20 and will continue through May/June, and states do them in regions/stages.
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