It's a big universe, and a wide range of things are "possible," but ...
From the New York Times June 14, 1932, based upon an interview with the auto industrialist ... nytimes.com/1932/06/14/arc… 
"He has been through a hectic experience and done all that any man could," said Ford of Hoover in the June 1932 interview.
And indeed Hoover Hoover won more than 38% of the vote in 1932. He held his base!
And indeed Hoover Hoover won more than 38% of the vote in 1932. He held his base!
Hard to imagine that even with the best luck in the world starting tomorrow afternoon, you don't have Great Depression level unemployment in November 2020
My view: Trump would have lost even without pandemic. Pandemic presents Trumpists with an excuse. But it’s not a very good one: “I lost only because I murderously bungled the first and only non-self-inflicted crisis of my presidency”
