Use of care and mortality due to corona in Finland, Sweden, Norway, Denmark, Iceland and Estonia; data from yesterday 10.5. Extra figures/reorganization.
Read the whole thread. (English)
Fig 1a-b. Number of persons in intensive and hospital care per day. 1/x
Read the whole thread. (English)
Fig 1a-b. Number of persons in intensive and hospital care per day. 1/x
Fig 2a-c. Number of deaths per day (moving average) and cumulative mortality. 2/x
Fig 3a-c. Geographical differences within Finland: Nr of persons in care/day and nr daily verified diagnoses by the five “specialised medical care regions”. Might be of interest to other countries to understand the spread btw the capital area (Helsinki) vs rest. 3/x
Overall trends stable or declining everywhere. In Finland, large geographical differences capital area Helsinki vs the rest. (For figures with daily numbers, I increased the delay to take into account delays and corrections in reporting). 4/x
I get lots of questions about Sweden; important to follow within country developments. I can’t do it myself but for balanced reviews I follow @GunnarBj, @jensfinnas, @JacobGudiol + more I now miss, and c19,se and covid19insweden.com 5/x
Last time: the reproduction number R; abstract measure; difficult to measure; 2-decimals in everyday discussions not useful, false sense of precision. @AdamJKucharski in more detail: 6/x
R0 is the basic reproductive number in the beginning; for corona general estimates about 2-3. But a) even this is an uncertain estimate and b) it is not a constant but can vary between populations and subgroups within population. This has an effect on the spread. 7/x
For those interested, few recent papers related to this: M. Gabriela M. Gomes at Medrxiv 2.5; Tom Britton arxiv,org 6.5, and @KennethBodin at Facebook(!): 8/x
And for balance a more critical response on this: 9/x
The usuals: While comparisons about the *levels between countries* with this kind of data is difficult, I do think these give a rough idea about the *within country changes*, and differences in *when* changes happen in different countries. 10/x
To be clear: I work at THL but my work not related to corona (dementia/diabetes); everything here my own opinions.
All data here from public sources; also the Finnish data.
I’m not an expert on infectious disease epidemiology. 11/11
All data here from public sources; also the Finnish data.
I’m not an expert on infectious disease epidemiology. 11/11
