It's misleading b/c testing has roughly doubled over the past month in non-NY states and if you do 2x more testing, you'll find a lot more cases. It's true that the numbers have turned around in NY, but the story in other states may be more encouraging than the chart implies.
Experts estimate that only something like 1 in 10 coronavirus *infections* are turning into confirmed *cases* in the US. So long as that's the case, the number of confirmed cases is going to be very sensitive to how much testing we're doing.
IDK but mostly I think news organizations should replace their charts on *raw confirmed case counts* with charts on the *positive test rate* and how it varies over time. That does create complications of its own, but it's a better first approximation IMO.
If the positive test rate is falling, then we know AT LEAST one of two GOOD things is happening.
Either infections are falling OR we've figured out how to do more widespread testing, or both.
Either infections are falling OR we've figured out how to do more widespread testing, or both.
Conversely, focusing on raw case counts will sometimes make GOOD news (more tests!) look like BAD news because quite often, an increase in detected cases reflects an increase in testing, even when the disease itself is steady/declining. That's a huge problem.
