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US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking.

Very good day but w/some caveats

Newly reported deaths
Today: 837
Yesterday: 979
One week ago (5/4): 912

Newly reported cases
T: 18K
Y: 22K
5/4: 21K

Newly reported tests
T: 395K
Y: 278K
5/4: 232K

Positive test rate
T: 4%
Y: 8%
5/4: 9%
Caveats:

1) Mondays are typically slow for reporting, especially for deaths, so tomorrow's numbers may be a lot worse.

2) Looks like NJ reported a huge batch of >100K mostly negative tests. This happens from time to time; some states are slow to report negative test results.
Still:

* Most tests in a day
* Lowest positive test rate in a day
* Fewest deaths reported since 3/31
* Fewest cases reported since 3/26

Sort of outlierishly good and likely isn't representative of the new normal.

However, there have been signs of progress over the past week.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
US daily numbers via @COVID19Tracking

Newly reported deaths
Today: 1,430
Yesterday: 786
One week ago (5/12): 1,543

Newly reported cases
T: 21K
Y: 20K
5/12: 21K

Newly reported tests
T: 399K
Y: 338K
5/12: 305K

Positive test rate
T: 5%
Y: 6%
5/12: 7%
Tuesdays are often quite bad as weekend reporting backlogs are cleared. But the past two Tuesdays have shown some improvement (1,430 and 1,543) after several Tuesdays in a row with 2,000+ deaths. We'll see what tomorrow and Thursday (also days that can produce bad numbers) bring.
Meanwhile, the positive test rate continues to decline. Over the past 7 days, it has been 6.2%, roughly half what the 7-day trailing average was on May 1 (12.1%). That may partly reflect more widespread availability of testing in the general population but still a good sign.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
GA, FL & TX have probably been the most focused-upon states for opening early, but if you look at mobility data, they're on the low end compared to neighbors.

apple.com/covid19/mobili…

LA -29%
*FL -27%*
*TX -14%*
NM -8%
TN -3%
*GA -2%*
AR -1%
NC +1%
MS +2%
OK +5%
AL +10%
SC +21%
One plausible theory is if there's a big media brouhaha over re-opening, it may actually make people more cautious:

* They may perceive more risk
* They may want to set a good example if their state is scrutinized
* Dems in the states may view staying home as a partisan signal
The other states are generally re-opening also, and not on terribly different schedules than GA/FL/TX. They've just received less media fanfare while doing so, and their governors are more popular.
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Nate Silver
@NateSilver538
These @youyanggu projections are interesting. If his model had to make a modal projection, it would be that the US will plateau somewhere near the recent total of ~1,300 deaths per day as restrictions are relaxed to the point where we get an R of ~1.

covid19-projections.com
But look at the uncertainty! Many unknowns. It's not hard to imagine some parameters where we're down to "just" 300 deaths a day (or fewer) by mid-August! Or have bounced back to 3,000 (or more)!

IMO this reflects a well-designed model that accounts for real-world uncertainty.
Importantly also, there's less uncertainty in the very near term. That is, it's unlikely there's a huge spike or rapid decline by the end of this month. It's the accumulation over time. Deaths growing at 10% a week vs. shrinking at 10% makes a big difference over a few months.
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