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NEW: @ONS data says that deaths in week 18 are down 4044 compared to week 17.

Good news. But our excess deaths are still way up-80% above normal in England and Wales. Not all of that is officially related to #covid19.
Total care home death (from all causes) fell in well 18- down 1502 to 6409.

But deaths from #covid19 as a proportion of all deaths in care homes has actually gone up- 37.8% compared with 35.3% in Week 17.
One group which can’t be furloughed but wants to be is sick carers. That’s because they don’t have full sick pay. Would cost govt a tiny fraction of furlough scheme and could have a public health benefit by reducing infected workers going into care homes
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Lewis Goodall
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NEW: Striking data from ONS. They say there 12,526 care home residents died (across all settings) from Covid-19 in two months.

But look at this. Of the deaths 72.2%, vast majority, took place in a care home itself, not hospital. Image
Now we can’t know how many were admitted to hospital and survived. But there’s a substantial imbalance between deaths in care homes and hospital.
On 2nd April, I reported from a care home which had been told if their residents got Covid they wouldn’t be taken to hospital. This data might suggest that idea policy was being observed in many other places.
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Lewis Goodall
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In terms of living with Covid, we’re going to need to start to have a sensible discussion about risk. Arguably we’re talking too much about minor risk faced by v unrisky groups, whilst not talking enough about huge risks for our oldest citizens, in care homes and in the community
And of course, younger people with health conditions which put them at greater risk.
The blog by Prof Spiegelhalter is v helpful because it reminds us that the general risk to much of the population is low but the risk to our older and oldest citizens increasingly high. Our efforts have to be on reducing transmission with those at risk groups foremost in mind.
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Lewis Goodall
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A week ago, I gave a list on Newsnight which explained why the situation in care homes was so bad.

1. Pressure to accept Covid patients from hospitals
2. PPE
3. Patchy testing regime
4. Agency staff
5. No sick pay

To a greater or lesser extent, all of these problems still exist
That’s partly why, as I reported last night, the number of total deaths in care homes has increased from 5.8% of the care home population in England and Wales, to 7.3% in five weeks.
at the risk of repeating myself (I don’t care) What’s bewildering is that at least one of them, sick pay, could be solved easily. Spend any time talking to carers and they’ll tell you the lack of it is a major source of transmission because they have to go to work with symptoms.
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